The Cincinnati Reds are still fighting to get back into the NL Wild Card picture, but overcoming a seven-game deficit may prove quite difficult after all. However, the Arizona Diamondbacks are just one game out and have been playing some quality baseball as of late. Tonight, these teams open a new series in the desert at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Reds vs. Diamondbacks game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
The Reds have tried to push their way out of last place in the NL Central and have gone 18-15 since the All-Star break. However, they’ve struggled over the last couple of outings with five losses in their last seven. Moreover, the club’s record remains 61-67 with a -89 run differential; hardly a sign of a postseason-worthy group. The Diamondbacks have been similarly warm since the break at 18-14 over this span, and the club has moved to 67-61 on the year with a +4 differential. There are things to like about their outlook moving forward, and at one game out of the Wild Card and one game shy of second in the NL West, they seemed to have turned things around.
RHP Nick Lodolo (3-2) starts for Cincinnati. He has 14 starts this year with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, and his 57 strikeouts over 71.2 IP aren’t much to write home about. The K% is 18.0% and the BB% is 9.2%, also bringing a below-average barrel rate and average exit velocity. The Reds’ bullpen falls 25th in ERA at 4.54 with a 1.44 WHIP and a 9.3% K-BB%.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (12-4) gets the nod for Arizona. His ERA is an excellent 2.71 with a 1.21 WHIP; his 106 strikeouts over 149.1 IP are less impressive, though. Even with a 17.3% K%, he finds ways to be effective and brings a 7.7% BB% with a better hard-hit rate than average. The club’s bullpen also ranks 17th in ERA at 4.17 with a 1.25 WHIP and an 11.9% K-BB%.
Looking at the offenses, one is a little better than the other. The D-Backs have a .714 OPS that ranks 18th in baseball and are 12th in scoring on the year – over the last few weeks since the break though, that OPS climbs to .780 with an elevated .176 ISO. They’re driving the ball much better than usual, though to be fair, a matchup with a righty isn’t exciting given a .232/.307/.381 slash line and .687 OPS on the season in the split.
The Reds’ bats haven’t been terrible, per se, but they haven’t been good either. They rank 25th in OPS at .696 and are way reliant on power over OBP, bringing a .165 ISO and the seventh-most homers this year with 165. Since the break, it’s been much of the same with a .673 OPS, so they haven’t gotten much better even while winning a few extra games. They’re probably happy to face a lefty tonight after slashing .239/.327/.413 in the split for an OPS of .740.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Diamondbacks as a -147 Moneyline favorite at home tonight, while the Reds enter as +131 underdogs on the road. The total is set at 8.5 combined runs.
Rodriguez has been nothing if not consistent this year. He’s kept his ERA way down and has only given up more than two earned runs in six of his 25 starts, doing so only twice since the start of July. He’s an effective soft-tosser, and while his 2.2 innings with five walks and a homer allowed against the Reds earlier this season does raise an eyebrow, it’s not necessarily indicative of what’s to come. He should have a better game tonight and limit this opposing lineup that hasn’t been doing well at the plate. Conversely, the D-Backs seem quite hot at the moment and are fifth in scoring since the break as well. Lodolo isn’t a name to fear, nor is the Cincinnati bullpen. Overall, I think this shapes up as another win for Rodriguez, who 12 victories he’s been tagged with rank sixth in the NL.
