Rafael Devers returns to Fenway Park on Friday for the first time since Boston traded him last June. His departure remains unusually complicated because of its personal tenor and everything that followed. Boston is 68-59 and second in the AL wild-card standings after going 31-12 since July 1. San Francisco arrives 52-75, with a 23-42 road record and eight consecutive road-series losses. The Giants scored four runs while losing two of three in Cleveland. Boston scored 26 against Arizona before resting Thursday after 16 consecutive games. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and the San Francisco Giants.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Red Sox vs. Giants prediction, preview
Logan Webb enters at 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 110 strikeouts across 139 innings. He has permitted two earned runs across 20 August innings, with 18 strikeouts and five walks. Webb combines a 28.8% sinker rate with 24.9% changeups and 19.2% sweepers. That mix has produced 52.1% grounders, 5.7% walks, and only 5.1% barrels. His .268 wOBA allowed sits below a .295 xwOBA, suggesting modest regression. Sonny Gray has a 2.65 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 132 2/3 innings. He has allowed two runs across 19 August innings, striking out 19 and walking four. Gray distributes most of his work across sinkers, sweepers, cutters, and curveballs, making count leverage especially important.
The particulars of Devers’ departure remain relevant. Boston assigned him to designated hitter after signing Alex Bregman, then asked him to begin learning first base. Devers believed the second request contradicted the first and refused before Boston traded him. He immediately accepted first-base work with San Francisco. Bregman subsequently left, while Boston traded three of four players acquired for Devers. Devers enters with hits in five of six, although his last-seven line is .214/.290/.464. His 92.6 mph average exit velocity and 50.9% hard-hit rate remain excellent. His 26.2% strikeout rate gives Gray’s varied shapes a meaningful path through the matchup.
Boston’s offense has become considerably more complete during its second-half rise. The Red Sox have batted .264/.346/.447 with 58 homers during their 31-12 run. Willson Contreras has produced a .284/.393/.534 line with 25 homers, 75 RBIs, and three consecutive multi-hit games. His 14.2% barrel rate and .380 xwOBA support that production. Wilyer Abreu is batting .327/.448/.712 with five homers and 13 RBIs across 15 games. San Francisco has hit .213/.281/.339 during August, leaving Webb with little scoring margin. Jung Hoo Lee’s .293 average provides steady traffic, while Willy Adames has supplied 20 homers. The surrounding lineup has failed to extend enough innings behind them.
Giants vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Fenway introduces doubles risk against Webb, whose contact management relies more on grounders than missed bats. The forecast calls for 69 degrees and an 8-mph breeze blowing inward. Those conditions should reduce home-run carry without removing the Green Monster’s influence. Boston’s bullpen has a 2.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 453 strikeouts. San Francisco relievers have recorded a 4.25 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, with 197 walks against 387 strikeouts. Keaton Winn’s elbow injury further weakens that group. Boston rested Thursday, while the Giants traveled after an afternoon game in Cleveland.
Boston deserves favoritism, although -170 leaves little room against Webb’s current form. The -1.5 price offers plus money, but Webb has allowed two August runs and nine homers all season. San Francisco +158 requires Gray to regress before its weaker bullpen enters. The total provides the better expression of the matchup. Both starters suppress barrels, limit walks, and regularly complete six innings. Boston’s bullpen can preserve a low total once Gray departs.
Best bet: Under 7.5 (-119), playable to -120.
Projected score: Red Sox 4, Giants 2.
Best bet: Red Sox vs. Giants u7.5 total runs scored (-120)
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