My first reaction to this random afternoon tilt between the Braves and the Brewers: Why? Why is this game getting started at 4:10 p.m. ET on Friday in Milwaukee?
However, after closer inspection, I’ll assume that the Baseball Gods simply wanted to let this pitching matchup stand alone. Chris Sale against Jacob Misiorowski? That’s about as a good as it gets.
Who will win in this battle of aces? Let’s dive into this possible NLCS preview and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Brewers prediction, preview
If you haven’t checked in on Jacob Misiorowski in awhile, allow me to assure you that the numbers are still eye-popping and amazing. In fact, in the Cy Young frontrunner’s past eight starts, he’s struck out 41.4% of the batters he’s faced while walking just 4.6%. That’s a 9.00 K/BB ratio. Remember when Misiorowski’s weakness was supposed to be his lack of command? It doesn’t appear that that’s all that large a concern anymore. In all honestly, the only red flag with the 24-year-old is the sudden uptick in opponent home runs. In that same eight-game span, Misiorowski’s conceded 1.76 long balls per nine. However, I think this is a blip on the radar instead of a trend. Misiorowski remains in possession of a 3.2% opponent barrel rate — the lowest mark of any qualified starter. If giving up a couple of wall-scrapers is his biggest sin, I think he’ll be fine in the long run.
On the other side of this star-studded pitching matchup, we find Chris Sale, who was drafted the year Misiorowski turned eight. Still, age is not stopping the lanky left-hander from being a dominant force on the mound. Across 22 starts and 129.0 innings, Sale has registered a 2.16 ERA and a 2.30 FIP. He’s got his own 30.9% strikeout rate and 5.71 K/BB ratio. He might truly of been in the mix for Cy Young consideration, if not for a stacked field and a lack of raw volume in comparison to Cristopher Sanchez and the like. No matter. Sale already has his trophies. On Friday, he’ll simply be looking to shutdown the Brewers, just like he did back on June 20, when he did not surrender an earned run over 5.2 frames.
It’s not like Milwaukee is tearing the cover off the ball at the moment, either. Don’t get me wrong, the Brewers are performing better than the Braves in August — as Atlanta has struggled to a .297 wOBA and an 85 wRC+ in the month — but it’s not by as much as you’d expect for the club with the best record in baseball. Since August 1, Milwaukee combines underwhelming marks in ISO (.130) and wRC+ (98). It also happens to sport the NL’s second-highest strikeout rate at 26.2%, which should play right into Sale’s strengths. With these two lineups stuck in the mud, this could be an exceedingly low-scoring affair.
Braves vs. Brewers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-131)
Among qualified pitchers, Jacob Misiorowski (1.76) and Chris Sale (2.16) have the first and second-lowest ERAs in MLB. If that wasn’t enough, both of these lineups have underwhelmed in August, posting a wRC+ below 100. Maybe one team scratches out a couple runs, but I doubt both will have success.
Strong Lean: Chris Sale 8+ Strikeouts (-112)
Sale’s exceeded or matched this prop in his last four starts — it’s a span where he owns a 40.7% strikeout rate. Meanwhile, the Brewers own MLB’s fourth-highest strikeout rate in the month (26.2%).
