The AFC South used to be Peyton Manning’s Romper Room, as he led the Indianapolis Colts to seven division titles from 2003 to 2010. Then Manning underwent neck surgery, the Colts bottomed out with two wins, and luck walked through the door. Not Lady Luck. Not good ‘ole random luck. No, this time it was Andrew Luck, selected with the first overall pick in the 2012 draft. The Colts then won 11 games in each of the next three seasons and won the division twice.
Unfortunately, both the luck and Luck wouldn’t last, as Andrew suffered injuries and eventually retired in 2019. Since Luck led the Colts to the division title in 2014, they have not been in the cellar, but they have also never worn the crown. As with many things in life, but especially in sports, being in the middle is the worst position to be in. And that’s where the Colts have been for 10+ seasons.
Since the Colts’ run of dominance, the division has been playing musical chairs, with no team winning the division more than two years in a row. In terms of streaks, the Jacksonville Jaguars occupied the cellar from 2018 to 2021 while the Tennessee Titans are currently riding a three-season run of futility. There is hope, though, as the Jaguars went from four wins in 2024 to winning the division with 13 wins last season.
Can the Titans rise from the ashes? Or will the Jaguars and Houston Texans arm wrestle once again for the title?
Here’s how things look on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Houston Texans
After the Texans selected quarterback C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick in the 2023 draft, the launch pad was filled with smoke as the rocket descended into space. In 15 starts, Stroud threw for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. Houston, we have liftoff. Unfortunately, the afterburners failed to kick in, and the descent back towards Earth began. But the collapse wasn’t a calamity, as the Texans still won 10 and nine games, as the defense kept things in orbit.
Houston posted the 10th-lowest EPA per carry on defense, but the pass defense dominated with the lowest EPA per dropback allowed. The unit held opposing quarterbacks to a 59.3% completion rate, the third-lowest mark, while intercepting 19 passes. The 47 sacks were tied for the sixth-most despite blitzing at the fifth-lowest rate. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are ferocious off the edge, and the Texans acquired Reed Blankenship at safety to cover the back end.
There’s no secret what the Texans want to do on offense, which is to pound the rock and play to their defense. Running back David Montgomery was signed to a two-year, $16.5 million contract to ground and pound. The offensive line is only rated 27th by PFF, though. And that affects both the run and passing games. Losing Jayden Higgins to an ACL injury hurts, but the receiving group is still very talented, with Nico Collins the headliner.
Jacksonville Jaguars
As mentioned in the opener, the Jaguars made a nine-game turnaround in a year. The record is a 10-game turnaround, which happened twice in NFL history. Much of the credit goes to Liam Coen, who helped Trevor Lawrence tremendously. Lawrence had a career-high 5.2% touchdown rate while the interception rate decreased from 2.5% to 2.1%.
And Coen has weapons galore to make defenses cry. Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington make for a dangerous triumvirate at receiver. There’s also Travis Hunter, who will be making cameos of explosiveness. You want speed? How about a 4.32-second 40-yard-dash from running back Bhayshul Tuten? You want no-nonsense power between the tackles? Chris Rodriguez Jr., who played under Coen in college. The one bugaboo is the offensive line, which some would say is straight offensive. PFF has the unit ranked 30th.
Defensively, the Jaguars were bullies, limiting opposing ground attacks to a league-low 1,455 yards and 3.9 yards per carry. That was good for the eighth-lowest EPA per carry. The pass defense was even more fierce, posting the second-lowest EPA per dropback, right behind the Texans. The unit racked up 22 interceptions, but the 32 sacks were the fourth-fewest while the pressure rate was middle of the pack.
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis thought they had their franchise guy in Anthony Richardson, selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 draft. However, the horseshoe is still feeling the residual effects of the Manning era. It got to work with Luck, but that fizzled out quickly. The horseshoe gave one last valiant effort with Daniel Jones last season, who was rejuvenated under Shane Steichen, but that ended even quicker after Jones tore his Achilles. Jones is back to start this season, but how effective will he be?
The offensive line is good, ranked fourth by PFF heading into the season. Running back Jonathan Taylor should be prepared for a massive load, but he’s played a full season only twice in his career and is coming off a 323-carry season. Back in 2021, Taylor rushed 332 times and scored 18 touchdowns. He only played 11 games the next season and rushed for 861 yards and four touchdowns. Taylor scored 18 touchdowns last season. Cue the Twilight Zone music.
The wide receiver group moved on from Michael Pittman and was expecting Alec Pierce to step up. If that wasn’t the plan, then the four-year, $114 million contract seems silly. But as Mike Tyson eloquently said, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” And the horse’s mouth got punched hard as Pierce is recovering from left ankle surgery. As a result, 34-year-old Keenan Allen was signed for one year and $3.32 million, while Josh Downs is expected to garner a high number of targets. Tyler Warren is a weapon at tight end, but without a field stretcher, defenses may compress the field and stack the box.
Defensively, the Colts posted the 13th-highest EPA per dropback and 18th-highest EPA per carry. It’s a middle-of-the-pack defense in every sense of the word.
Tennessee Titans
Remember the Titans? Great movie. As for the Titans, Tennessee has been awful the last three seasons. Tennessee whiffed on Will Levis and now pins its hopes on Cam Ward. The final stats weren’t pretty for Ward last season: his completion percentage was 59.8%, he threw only 15 touchdowns in 17 starts with no multi-touchdown games and took a league-leading 55 sacks. But he was a rookie then. Now, he’s a grizzled veteran. Ok, maybe not, but he’s got experience and some decent weapons in Carnell Tate, Calvin Ridley and Wan’Dale Robinson, with Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears in the backfield. The offensive line, though, is ranked only 29th by PFF heading into the season.
New leadership is in place, with Robert Saleh leading the way. A defensive-minded coach will likely play more conservatively on offense, but the focus will likely be on developing Ward. The ideal situation would be what the Texans are doing with Stroud, but that requires a stout defense, and the Titans do not have one.
The rush defense allowed the eighth-highest EPA per carry. The 21 rushing touchdowns allowed were the third-most. Through the air, the Titans produced the fourth-highest EPA per dropback. The 30 passing touchdowns were the sixth-most, while the 12 turnovers were tied for the fourth-fewest. The line generated pressure at the ninth-best rate, and the unit racked up 42 sacks, tied for the eighth-most. A plethora of changes are projected in the starting unit, and Saleh should help improve this side of the ball, but it may not be enough.
Conclusion
The Texans and Jaguars are head and shoulders above the Colts and Titans in this division, mainly because of their defenses. The teams split their regular-season meetings last year in two different game environments. Houston won the first 17-10, while Jacksonville won the rematch 36-29. The Jaguars have more upside on offense with flash and bling, but the offensive line is a major concern. The Texans aren’t as exciting on offense, and their offensive line is also a concern, but their defense is so good, and their ball-control offense should be efficient. That said, the Jaguars have more than a puncher’s chance in this one and are a legitimate threat to repeat as division champions.
