While everyone’s seemingly focused on the mess that is the AL Wild Card chase, there’s still things to be decided in the NL, too.
The Phillies, Padres and Diamondbacks appear to be fighting for two playoff spots, but I’m here to remind you to not sleep on the Cardinals, who are 65-63 and just three games back.
Can St. Louis continue their postseason hunt by winning a series in Cincinnati on Thursday? Let’s preview this matinee divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs. Reds prediction, preview
The Cardinals’ rotation has a type, and sadly, that type is: Pitcher is who really outperforming his expected statistics. I thought Kyle Leahy was the most damning case of this affliction, but I actually now believe it might be Michael McGreevy. Formerly the 18th-overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, McGreevy comes into today’s action sporting a 3.48 ERA across 132.0 innings of work. However, the right-hander also owns a sixth percentile xERA (5.47), a sixth percentile opponent expected batting average (.284) and a 12th percentile opponent barrel rate (10.2%). You also already know that McGreevy has a non-existent strikeout rate (16.9%), as that’s another tentpole aspect of being a St. Louis starting pitcher. I’d say regression is on the horizon for the 26-year-old, yet it might already be here. Even with all three runs he surrendered in his last outing being unearned, McGreevy still has a 6.00 ERA dating back to July 23.
With all that said, we’ve got a real “very stoppable force meets a very movable object” situation on our hands in this matchup. McGreevy hasn’t been all that good in 2026, but at the same time, the Reds can not hit. Here are Cincinnati’s team rankings in major offensive categories in the month of August: 30th in batting average (.195), 30th in OBP (.265), 29th in wOBA (.275) and 29th in wRC+ (66). Add in the highest strikeout rate in baseball at 27.6%, and it doesn’t take too long to figure out the issue. No opposing pitcher likes taking the mound at Great American Ball Park, yet they might start to feel differently if the Reds continue to go to the plate with pool noodles.
Finally, let’s talk a little Brady Singer, who is single-handedly trying to teach the public that quality starts aren’t that important. To wit, Singer’s managed six quality starts in his last seven appearances, yet his reward for such consistency is only an ERA hovering around 4.00 in that same stretch. That’s a pretty good representation of who the veteran RHP is at this point in his career. Singer isn’t as bad as the pitcher that got blasted for a 7.77 ERA in May of 2026, but he’s a long way away from the 2022 version of himself that was hinting at being an All-Star talent. The now 30-year-old is a back-end rotation arm that eats innings and is a little too home run prone. We all have a role, right?
Cardinals vs. Reds pick, best bet
Best Bet: Cardinals ML (-106)
Neither of these pitchers inspire confidence, but whereas the Reds have the league’s worst lineup in August, the Cardinals sit fourth in expected wOBA in the month (.328). That’ll be the difference in this rubber match.
