The Philadelphia Eagles have been, not only the preeminent team in the division, but one of the foremost teams in the NFL over the last nine seasons. Philadelphia made the Super Bowl three times, hoisting the Lombardi Trophy twice while winning the division five times. There was only one season with a sub-.500 record while double-digit wins were racked up five times, with four of those coming in the last four seasons. The Dallas Cowboys won the division three times over that span, but the Cowboys had four seasons with sub-.500 records. The Washington Commanders squeaked out a division title, but that asterisk needs to be bolded because no team had a winning record that season, something that’s happened only four other times in NFL history. Oh, those poor New York Giants, cellar dwellers in six of the last 11 seasons, with two of those in the last two seasons.
Will Philadelphia and Dallas dominate the proceedings once again? That’s how it looks right now on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Eagles
There were some massive changes on the offensive side of the ball, as Sean Mannion is the new coordinator and AJ Brown is now in New England. Mannion was a quarterback in the league for six seasons but this will be his first stint as a coordinator. His scheme is much different than what the Eagles were running recently. Jalen Hurts will be under center more with utilization of pre-snap motion and play-action concepts. There’s been optimism regarding Mannion and his scheme so far, but there are question marks to how it and he will perform when things become real.
The Eagles were 15th in EPA per dropback but only 17th in EPA per carry. It’s been the run game that had been the foundation for everything. Last season, Philadelphia was third in EPA per carry. Prior to that, sixth, first and third. The offensive line is rated as the second-best by PFF heading into the season and I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that the run game will get back on track.
With Brown no longer the alpha in the passing game, the Eagles still have a plethora of weapons. DeVonta Smith will likely be the highest target earner, Dontayvion Wicks will be the field stretcher while heralded rookie Makai Lemon could cause havoc out of the slot. Dallas Goedert is a very good tight end while Saquon Barkley is still one of the better dual-threat running backs in the game.
Defensively, Philadelphia should be one of the better units in the league. The defensive line is stout and helped produce the fifth-lowest EPA per carry. The nine rushing touchdowns allowed were the second-fewest. The pass defense was just as good, posting the sixth-lowest EPA per dropback. Only 14 passing touchdowns were allowed while the unit racked up 12 interceptions. The Eagles blitzed at the second-lowest rate yet racked up the eighth-most sacks and 14th-highest pressure rate.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys could boast one of the best offenses in the league with Dak Prescott under center, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens at wide receiver and Jake Ferguson at tight end. Third receiver, Ryan Flournoy, has been balling in camp and looks to be making a leap. Last season, he caught 40 of 56 targets for 475 yards and four touchdowns. Dallas finished with the sixth-highest EPA per dropback. Javonte Williams isn’t a superstar, but he does yeoman’s work on the ground, helping Dallas post the 13th-highest EPA per carry. The offensive line is 17th per PFF and boasts one of the best interiors in the game.
Defensively is where things fell apart in Dallas. Is it time to change the Big D to little d? Or how about allas? The pass defense allowed the second-highest EPA per dropback. The 6.1 yards per play were second-most, the 4,276 passing yards were the most and the 35 passing touchdowns were second-most. The EPA per carry and 24 rushing touchdowns allowed were tied for the most. Whew. Dallas had the highest pressure rate yet finished tied for the fifth-fewest sacks.
But there’s hope in Dallas. Christian Parker is the new coordinator and the unit was bolstered with the acquisitions of defensive end Otito Ogbonnia, linebackers Rashan Gary and Dee Winters, safety Jalen Thompson, cornerback Cobie Durant and 11th overall pick Caleb Downs. The defense should be much improved. It would be very difficult for it to be worse. If, and it’s a big if, the defense is indeed better, that could bring the 624 pass attempts down into the 500s on offense, while the run game takes more precedence.
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels played 17 games two seasons ago and led the Commanders to a 12-5 record. He completed 69% of his 480 pass attempts for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also rushed 148 times for 891 yards and six touchdowns. He literally placed the Commanders on his back and marched them into the playoffs. Last season, Daniels played only seven games due to injury and Washington finished 5-12. Daniels is the alpha, omega, beta, kappa and whatever greek symbol is out there for Washington.
Some weapons were procured in the offseason for Daniels – tight end Chig Okonkwo and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately, left tackle Laremy Tunsil tore a tricep in training camp while center Nick Allegretti is dealing with a calf strain. With Tunsil out, PFF has this offensive line rated as the worst in football. Daniels negates some of the impact due to his rushing ability, but it’s a huge, huge blow.
Defensively, the Cowboys were porous defending the pass last season. The Commanders said hold my beer and posted the third-highest EPA per dropback. The unit allowed 33 passing touchdowns and racked up only 10 turnovers, the second-fewest. Washington couldn’t generate much pressure, posting the seventh-lowest pressure rate but the 42 sacks were tied for the eighth-most. The rush defense allowed the 15th-highest EPA per carry and the 4.8 yards per carry and 2,411 rushing yards were both tied for the third-most.
New York Giants
New York, New York. Big city of dreams. And everything in New York ain’t always what it seems. The Giants have been the laughingstock of the division for quite some time, but there’s a new sheriff in town. John Harbaugh is a proven winner and the Giants should be disciplined, well-coached and fundamentally sound. Whether that translates to wins remains to be seen, but this team should be improved. Since 2008, a Harbaugh-led team had a negative turnover differential only five times.
It’s a quarterback league and Jaxson Dart showed more than a level of competency, completing 63.7% of his 339 attempts for 2,272 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also rushed 86 times for 487 yards and nine touchdowns. Unfortunately, he missed a few games due to a concussion and what makes him dangerous, both to himself and defenses, is the willingness to channel his inner ram and show ’em who’s boss mentality when toting the rock. Harbaugh has extensive history with dual-threat quarterbacks, so there’s a good chance he can rein in the young stallion. That said, Dart is still a young stallion.
The offensive line is ranked 23rd heading into the season by PFF but a first round selection was utilized on guard Francis Mauigoa. Tight end Isaiah Likely played for Harbaugh in Baltimore, but always was behind Mark Andrews on the depth chart. He looks to be the number one option at tight end and reports out of camp are that he and Dart are making a love connection. Wide receiver Malik Nabers and running back Cam Skattebo are both returning from injury. If both are healthy, this offense becomes interesting, but it may be a wee bit optimistic to think both will be returning to full strength when the season starts.
Defensively, New York posted the 15th-highest EPA per dropback and 13th-highest EPA per carry. Higher is no bueno on the defensive side. The Giants were middle of the pack in both pressure rate and sacks but the Giants made a concerted effort to bolster the defensive side of the ball this offseason. The fifth overall pick was utilized to select linebacker Arvell Reese. Defensive end Shelby Harris, defensive tackle DJ Reader, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and cornerback Greg Newsome II will all likely be new starters.
Conclusion
It looks like more of the same in the division, at least for this season. The Giants will likely be much improved, but it’s too early to consider them contenders. Jayden Daniels is awesome, but the task is too daunting. Philadelphia is the strongest in the trenches, on both sides of the ball, but there are questions about the offense. If it clicks, the Eagles will run away with the division. That said, the Cowboys offense should be one of the best in the league. If the defense does improve, then it’s well within the range of outcomes that Dallas unseats Philadelphia on the NFC East throne.
