The FIBA World Cup break is right around the corner, which means time is running out on the WNBA regular season. The Sun are playing out their final days in Connecticut, looking to depart for Houston with their chins held high. Meanwhile, the defending champion Las Vegas Aces are in the midst of a dogfight for playoff positioning.
The Aces enter as 14.5-point home favorites with -1200 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun are +750 underdogs, with the game total set at 166.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Sun-Aces matchup.
Sun vs. Aces Preview
This will be the third and final regular-season meeting between these two teams. It’s been quite a while since they faced off—their last meeting was a back-to-back in the middle of May. Las Vegas won both road games. They dominated that first matchup, winning 98-69 behind their strong defense and the offensive efforts of A’ja Wilson and Chennedy Carter. The second game was considerably closer at 101-94, but the Sun still had no answer for the M’VP. Wilson had an astounding 45 points on 15-of-18 shooting, making both of her three-pointers and all 13 of her free throws.
For the Sun, it’s all about doing better on Wilson. It’s not easy for anybody to contain the league’s best player, but you can’t let her do whatever she wants. If they had kept her to her A game instead of her A+ game, they could have won that second matchup. Now that Aneesah Morrow is gone, a heavy burden falls on Brittney Griner and Aaliyah Edwards to check Wilson. But unfortunately for the Sun, both players are currently listed as questionable. If neither suits up, Connecticut’s best hope might be to close their eyes and cross their fingers.
For the Aces to pull out this win, it’s about putting Wilson in the right spots offensively. Jackie Young has to score the ball to take pressure off their superstar, and Chelsea Gray has to be her elite passing self to get Wilson into the looks she wants. Of course, that is the standard for both players, but it’s not a given that they both click on every night. Luckily for Las Vegas, their excellent defense is facing the league’s most inefficient offense. Assuming they can execute their game plan, they have to like their chances.
A real X-factor here is Leïla Lacan. Her perimeter defense and offensive table-setting could make a huge difference for the Sun in this matchup. If she can get after it at the point of attack to slow down Gray and Young while putting her teammates in great positions to score, she could be the difference-maker. It has been an uphill battle to get Connecticut’s offense to function, but if anyone can lift them, it’s Lacan.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who will pull out the win, and how should we bet on this game?
Sun vs. Aces Pick, Best Bet
It’s hard to have much confidence in this Sun team. With such a low offensive floor and ceiling, they’re a tough bet against the top teams in the league, especially one with a defense like the Aces. Las Vegas is feeling the heat in the playoff race, and they always show up for games this important. You can count on a convincing home win here for the defending champs.
