There was a monumental beatdown in Milwaukee last night – have you ever seen a 22-0 shutout win in the MLB before? If you hadn’t, now you have. The Brewers demolished the Seattle Mariners in stunning fashion yesterday and now take them on one more time tonight. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Mariners vs. Brewers game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Brewers prediction, preview
It’s been a season to forget for the Mariners, who have now dropped seven of their last 10 games and are just 11-18 since the All-Star break. Were the AL West not a mess, they’d be far out of the postseason picture at 59-67 with a run differential of -45 – somehow, they’re just four games shy of the division lead and three out of a Wild Card spot. It’s been a far cry from the campaign the Brewers are having with a 78-48 record and a +158 differential, also going 19-11 since the break.
RHP Logan Gilbert (9-7) tosses start No. 25 tonight for Seattle. He carries a 3.28 ERA and an 0.99 WHIP with 152 strikeouts over 145.1 IP, an excellent campaign from the veteran arm. His K% is 26.6% with high whiff and strikeout rates, while a 5.8% BB% is equally impressive. The club’s bullpen has fallen to 19th in ERA at 4.24 with a 1.36 WHIP and 14.1% K-BB%.
For Milwaukee, RHP Dustin May (6-7) gets the nod at home. He has a 4.13 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over his 122.0 IP this year. He’s struck out 117 hitters for a 23.1% K% with a 7.9% BB%, though the average exit velocity allowed is quite high at 90.2 mph. The Brewers’ relievers are elite, ranking third best in ERA at 3.45 with a 1.24 WHIP and 14.3% K-BB%.
The Mariners’ offense has underperformed seemingly all season long. They’ve scored the fewest runs of any MLB club and rank 27th in OPS on the year at .685. The power upside has been somewhat limited with a .147 ISO, even despite 145 homers that fall 16th. When they aren’t hitting balls over the fence, scoring tends to dry up, and a 23.0% K% that ranks closer to the sport’s higher marks doesn’t help. The M’s also slash .245/.314/.391 against right-handed pitching for a .705 OPS on the season.
The Brewers have fared much better in the scoring column, even outside of last night’s 22-run explosion. The club has scored the fifth-most runs in baseball this year and ranks seventh in OPS at .733. A .144 ISO is fifth-to-last and the lineup’s 117 homers are the fewest of any team, but clearly, the lack of power hasn’t held them back – it tends to be less of an issue against right-handed pitching, as well. The plate approach is also good with an MLB-best 0.50 BB/K ratio, and against right-handers like the Brew Crew face tonight, they slash .258/.341/.407 with a .747 OPS.
Mariners vs. Brewers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as a -118 Moneyline favorite at home tonight, while the Mariners enter as +110 underdogs ont he road. The total is set at just seven combined runs.
Gilbert seems to be the only reason Seattle really has a chance here. The 29-year-old has been nails lately with a 2.29 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, plus 19 strikeouts over 19.2 IP in three August starts. He’s also coming off six shutout innings in his most recent start, so perhaps he can keep that form rolling. Now, it’s worth noting that May has also done the same since heading to Milwaukee at the deadline, holding a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 13.0 IP as a Brewer. Whether that kind of bump in production is sticky remains tougher to tell, but it is tough to ignore.
With both pitchers in great form at the moment, it’s tempting to take the under on the run total. However, I’d actually stay away from that and just target Milwaukee for an outright win here. Gilbert has been great, yes, but the Mariners’ bullpen has regressed hard as of late. They were overperforming for much of the campaign in terms of ERA relative to their FIP, and since the All-Star break, they’re second-to-last in ERA at 6.50 with a 1.52 WHIP. Even excluding last night’s blow-up matchup, those same numbers are 5.40 and 1.37. That’s the kind of poor play that can allow the Brew Crew to thrive in the later stages, even if Gilbert is good early on.
