After a brief break for the Leagues Cup league phase, MLS is back in session for the home stretch of the season, although another break could be welcome for Inter Miami. The Herons were knocked out prior to the knockouts in the Leagues Cup, the first time that Lionel Messi has ever been eliminated in the opening stage in his career. Then, they lost 4-1 against Nashville SC in the first regular season game after the Leagues Cup, a critical blow to their title hopes.
Tonight, Inter Miami will hope to get back to winning ways when it faces the Philadelphia Union at 7:30 p.m. ET. It could be a solid opportunity to pick up all three points, given that the Union sit just 13th in MLS, but the hosts could present a tricky test.
Philadelphia is a +115 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Herons are +165. There are +310 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down this East Coast battle and provide my favorite bet.
Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami Best Bet:
- Philadelphia Union Moneyline (+115): Inter Miami can be pretty turnover-prone, and the Union operate an effective high press. Philadelphia has all the momentum, having won four league games in a row, while the Herons have lost three straight (including the Leagues Cup). Inter Miami’s defense is a mess, and the Union have enough talent to take advantage.
Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami prediction, pick
Inter Miami is in the much better position in the standings, as there’s just a five-point deficit between the Herons and Nashville at the top of the conference. However, momentum is not in their favor, and, counting the Leagues Cup, they’re coming off of three straight losses. The Union had picked up only one win prior to the World Cup, but the break served as a reset, and they have won four straight contests since, including wins over both New York teams. Philadelphia is having a down season, but it’s still a talented squad with much of the same core that finished with the best record in MLS in 2025.
The Union lost their top scorer from 2025, Tai Baribo, but his departure shouldn’t be the primary difference between a contender and a cellar-dweller. Milan Iloski has made some nice strides, scoring 10 goals in 19 starts, and 16-year-old Cavan Sullivan — arguably the most promising talent the United States has ever produced — has produced three assists, including two on Sunday against NYCFC. All in all, Philadelphia has had a strong attack, ranking seventh in expected goals, and while it hasn’t been incredibly clinical, completing its passes at the second-lowest rate and ranking fifth-to-last in goals minus expected goals, that’s still a decent number for such a young squad. The Union have also been okay defensively, sitting near the middle of the pack in expected goals per match and limiting opponents to the third-fewest shots on target per match. They’ve also averaged the third-most tackles, the most interceptions, and the fourth-most recoveries per match while winning aerial duels at the second-highest rate and forcing the second-most high turnovers with their press. Philadelphia definitely needs to be more disciplined, as it averages the second-most fouls, and goalkeeper Andre Blake is past his prime, but it’s definitely more talented than its position in the standings indicates.
Inter Miami has the far bigger names. Messi, of course, is the headliner, and he’s been tremendous, nothing 12 goals and eight assists in 16 league appearances, but even he only managed to get two of his 11 shots on target in the match against Nashville. Luis Suárez, his long-time Barcelona teammate, has 10 goals in 15 matches, and newly-acquired Casemiro is still a high-level player, starting all but five matches for Manchester United last season. It’s not a surprise, then, that the Herons have had arguably the most potent attack in MLS this season, managing the most goals and the second-most expected goals from the second-most shots on target while completing passes at the ninth-highest rate. However, because Inter Miami made such significant investments in the attack, it has struggled in the defense, allowing the ninth-most expected goals and the 11th-most shots on target per match. The Herons also rank near the bottom of the league in clearances per match, and they’ve produced among the fewest high turnovers overall. Combined with relatively indisciplined play and mediocrity from goalkeepers Dayne St. Clair and Rocco Ríos Novo, it shouldn’t be surprising that Inter Miami has given up at least two goals in each of its last five matches.
It’s hard to ever justify betting against Messi, but momentum is a real thing, and the World Cup final proved that, as game-changing as his talent still is, he isn’t infallible. The Herons can be pretty sloppy, committing the fourth-most errors leading to a shot. Plus, the Union have been much more efficient on both sides of the ball from set-piece situations, a critical factor in a match between two of soccer’s most foul-prone teams. Inter Miami could have the passing to break Philadelphia’s press, especially since the Union aren’t very good at playing the offsides trap, but it’s hard not to see the Herons making some silly error and gifting the hosts a goal. Philadelphia has gone a respectable 3-3-3 at home, and it could be in position to make it 4-3-3 tonight.
