Closing down tonight’s two-game WNBA slate, the Minnesota Lynx will take on the Golden State Valkyries.
This is the third of four matchups between these two teams this season. The Lynx pulled off an 87-84 win in the first meeting, and the built off this for an 81-75 win in their most recent tilt. These teams last faced off on June 19.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Lynx enter as 2.5-point favorites and hold -142 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Valkyries hold +120 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 163.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Lynx at Valkyries matchup.
Lynx at Valkyries Preview
The Minnesota Lynx sit at the top of the WNBA standings with a 29-7 record on the season. They enter this game on a four-game winning streak, and Minnesota has won 14 of its past 15. The Lynx have gone 21-15 against the spread, and the game has gone over the total in 21 of their 36 matchups.
Olivia Miles has stepped up into the forefront of the production for the Lynx, posting averages of 19.9 points, 6.1 assists, and 4.6 rebounds across her rookie season. This has largely come while Napheesa Collier has been sidelined from her offseason ankle surgeries. The five-time All-Star and back-to-back MVP runner-up made her return just before the All-Star break and is posting averages of 19.1 points and 7.3 rebounds across her nine games played. Kayla McBride contributes 18.2 points and 3.2 rebounds, while shooting 42.3% from beyond the three-point arc, while Natasha Howard adds 15.1 points and 7.8 rebounds per game of her own. Courtney Williams is the lone other player averaging double figures with 14.6 points and 5.1 rebounds, while Nia Coffey and Maya Caldwell also play key roles.
The Lynx rank second in the WNBA in scoring at 92.6 points per game. Minnesota also ranks second in offensive rating, third in field goal percentage, and first in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 83.8 points per game against the Lynx, the third-lowest mark in the league. They also rank third in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field goal percentage, and third in opponent three-point percentage.
The Golden State Valkyries enter tonight’s matchup with a 25-9 record, just three games back from the top seed in the WNBA standings. The Valkyries have found their stride in the home stretch of the season, entering this game on a six-game winning streak and having won 15 of their past 17. On the season overall, Golden State has gone 19-15 against the spread, and 16-18 to the over.
Gabby Williams headlines the production for Golden State, averaging 14.9 points and 3.3 rebounds per game. Janelle Salaun adds 13.0 points and 3.7 rebounds off the bench, while shooting 39.6% on three-point attempts on a team-leading 6.3 attempts per game. Veronica Burton contributes 12.4 points and a team-high 5.5 assists per game, while Kayla Thornton, Kiah Stokes, and Cecilia Zandalasini each also play key roles.
Golden State is scoring 83.4 points per game, which ranks 12th in the WNBA. They also rank seventh in offensive rating, 15th in field-goal percentage, and fifth in three-point percentage, while launching the most perimeter shots in the league. Defensively, opponents are averaging 76.7 points per game against Golden State, the lowest mark in the league. The Valkyries also rank first in defensive rating, second in opponent field-goal percentage, and sixth in opponent three-point percentage.
Lynx at Valkyries Pick, Best Bet
The Lynx have come out victorious in both matchups so far this season. Minnesota produced an 87-84 win in their first meeting, in a matchup where neither team was able to extend a lead by more than seven points. The Lynx won the rebounding battle 43-31 and shot an impressive 13-for-26 from beyond the three-point arc, their fourth-most impressive perimeter efficiency in any game this season. Minnesota won the fourth quarter 22-18 to secure the three-point victory. Golden State narrowly covered the 3.5-point spread in this matchup.
Minnesota secured an 81-75 win in the second meeting between these two teams. Golden State extended a lead to as many as 12 points, and held control for 55% of the matchup, while the Lynx were never able to extend their advantage beyond seven points. It was Minnesota’s interior production that was the difference in this game, as they outscored Golden State in the paint 38-22. The Lynx shot 6-for-13 from beyond the three-point arc, while the Valkyries shot 12-for-40 from deep in this game. Minnesota covered the 2.5-point spread.
Both these teams are playing their best basketball at the right time and have hit their stride down the home stretch of the season. This is a heavyweight matchup between the two teams with the best records in the WNBA, and each side holds deep playoff aspirations.
While the Lynx have picked up victories in each of their first two opportunities, I am backing the Valkyries to put one in the win column tonight. Golden State has been on an absolute tear of late, and this is one of the most difficult places to play in sports. The Valkyries are 15-4 straight up at home this season, and they are 11-8 against the spread in these opportunities. Not only has Golden State won 15 of its last 17, but its covered the spread in 11 of these matchups.
The Valkyries have the personnel to slow down this stellar Minnesota attack, and expect their league-leading defense to set the tone. Golden State is chasing the Lynx for the best record in the league and expect it to approach this with a playoff-like focus. Count on this matchup coming down to the wire, but for the home court advantage to be a key factor tonight. Golden State has put itself in a position to win in both of the prior matchups this year, and expect it to finish the job this time around.
