The AL West’s treadmill of mediocrity continues. The division-leading Houston Astros are once again stuck at .500 after a loss to the Los Angeles Angels at home last night, but things continue on Wednesday evening at Daikin Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Angels vs. Astros game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Angels vs. Astros prediction, preview
The Astros certainly have the upper hand heading into this matchup, even coming off back-to-back losses in the series. They’re 63-63 this year with a -32 run differential, but have gone 16-12 since the All-Star break and have largely held onto that positive momentum despite some momentary roadblocks. The Angels, however, are 12-17 over the same span and have a 50-76 overall record with a -84 differential; hardly the marks of a competitive baseball team.
RHP Ethan Pecko (0-0) makes his MLB debut tonight for Houston. The No. 6 prospect in the club’s pipeline, the 23-year-old had a 4-6 record with a 4.94 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP and 71 strikeouts over 74.2 IP at the Triple-A level this year. He was excellent over the first month of the campaign and re-found his form in June, but otherwise, it’s been a hot-and-cold year for the young arm. The Astros’ bullpen that’ll be backing him is quite solid though, ranking 12th in ERA at 3.95 with a 1.27 WHIP and a 13.8% K-BB%.
For Los Angeles, rookie RHP Walbert Urena (8-8) gets the nod here. The 22-year-old has been everything the club hoped for over his 107.2 IP – he carries a 2.67 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP and 102 punchouts into tonight’s outing. His fastball velocity is high but he keeps exit velos down, also limiting barrels and hard-hit balls while forcing plenty of grounders. The relievers for L.A. are uninspiring with a 4.31 ERA that falls 21st, plus a 1.38 WHIP despite a 14.0% K-BB%.
The Astros’ bats are far superior to those of the Angels. Houston ranks 10th in scoring and OPS (.729) this season, bringing serious power to the plate – the club has the seventh-best ISO (.169) and third-most home runs (169) of any team. They’re fifth in wRC+ on the campaign and eighth in the same stat since the All-Star break. Against right-handers, they slash .245/.320/.418 with a .738 OPS this year, too.
The Angels don’t have nearly as much going for them at the dish. They rank 25th in scoring and 28th in OPS (.684) this year. They’re also 28th in ISO (.139) and 26th in homers (126). Without much upside for pop, those marks are especially poor given a 25.2% K% that sits second highest among all clubs. The Angels are also dead last in wRC+ since the break and 27th in the stat in the full-season sample. Against right-handers, they slash only .235/.310/.372 for a .682 OPS.
Angels vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as a -154 Moneyline favorite at home tonight, while the Angels enter as +143 underdogs on the road. The total is set at 8.5 combined runs.
There are questions about whether Pecko is ready for the MLB, and they’re honestly fair to ask. He’s been great at times this year, such as a five-start stretch in June with a 2.48 ERA and 0.93 WHIP for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys, but he’s fallen off since with an ERA of 5.00 or worse in July and August. The good news is that the Angels aren’t an intimidating lineup for one’s first MLB start, but it does seem like Houston is scrambling to find any help it can get in the rotation.
Urena is a great young arm and should be able to keep this game close in the earlier innings. In two starts against Houston this year, he’s allowed just five hits and one earned run with 12 strikeouts over his 11.0 IP. Still, it’s tough to trust the Angels’ lineup to give him much run support. Since the All-Star break, they’re dead last in OPS with a .601 mark and are batting just .219 with a miserable .091 ISO. The club’s wRC+ over this span is also, predictably, dead last.
With that in mind, I actually like under 3.5 combined runs from these teams in the first five innings. Assuming Walbert performs and Pecko doesn’t totally collapse, this bet could certainly cash at plus value. It’s an intriguing option for a game that otherwise isn’t all that interesting from a betting perspective, at least in my opinion.
