Can the real Paul Skenes please stand up?
With his recent struggles, the 2023 first-overall pick has been the talk of the baseball world for the past few weeks, as everyone tries to figure out what’s been going on with the formerly un-hittable superstar. The most recent fix? A few extra days rest. That’s why Skenes will take the mound this afternoon against the Tigers, instead of having pitched this past weekend.
Will some down time get the reigning Cy Young Award winner back on track? Let’s preview this matinee interleague clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tigers vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Let’s start with what we know, and that’s the cold, hard facts. Since the beginning of July, Paul Skenes has made eight starts for the Pirates. In those outings, the All-Star has pitched to a ghastly 5.62 ERA, though his 3.59 FIP in the same stretch paints a much more optimistic story. Obviously Skenes losing a couple ticks of velocity on his fastball is a major concern, and an inflated 9.4% walk rate isn’t helping matters, but at the end of the day, some of the rationale behind the “fall-off” seems to be luck adjacent. Skenes has still struck out 28.9% of the batters he’s faced, yet that lack of consistent opponent contact is offset by a .379 BABIP and a 63.2% strand rate. Conversely, an 11.1% opponent barrel rate and a 46.3% opponent hard hit rate are real red flags, so it’s not like you can waive off the past six weeks as purely chance. Skenes best appearance of the second-half was directly after the All-Star Game, on a full week’s rest, when he tossed seven innings of one-run ball against the Guardians. I assume Pittsburgh’s brass is hoping for a similar result this afternoon.
He is catching the Tigers at a decent time. Detroit’s dropped four of its last five contests, and a significant factor in that swoon is underwhelming offensive performance. It goes further than Braxton Ashcraft holding the club to a single run over eight innings on Tuesday night, too. Across the past two weeks, the Tigers rank 25th in ISO (.126) and 19th in wRC+ (96). This is a lineup that needs power to be successful, as the team sits dead-last in stolen bases for the season as a whole (36). It’s also a lineup that could be aided from some health. Riley Greene (hamstring), Kerry Carpenter (foot) and Matt Vierling (groin) are all currently on the IL, and it’s left Detroit’s roster feeling a little thin.
Speaking of injury, Jackson Jobe has only pitched in two games since returning from one of his own. Let’s just say the results have been mixed. On August 8, Jobe touched 100 mph in five scoreless frames against the lowly Giants. The former third-overall pick was back and looking like a phenom. However, on August 14, Jobe surrendered nine hits and six earned runs to the White Sox in a high-pressure spot with the AL Central on the line. It’s difficult to say what version of the 24-year-old we’ll get on Wednesday, but I think it’s important to remember that even with all the skill and pedigree in the world, Jobe’s pitched to a 5.06 xERA in his career at the MLB level. This stuff isn’t easy.
Tigers vs. Pirates pick, best bet
Best Bet: Tigers ML (+143)
With so much uncertainty in this starting pitching matchup, I think this is a spot where you simply roll with the underdog at plus-money. The Pirates have lost Skenes’ past four outings and, since the All-Star break, the team sits 27th in both expected wOBA (.284) and wRC+ (81). Not being able to trust your pitching or hitting seems like a poor formula for success.
