The NL East has a dominant club at the top, but the next three in the standings are all threats to make the postseason as well. Today, the Miami Marlins take on the Philadelphia Phillies in the second outing of a three-game series after Philly took the first one last night. With just two games separating these clubs in the Wild Card chase, the outcome could certainly prove integral when it’s time for final seeding. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Marlins vs. Phillies game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Marlins vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Both of these clubs entered the All-Star break hot, but it’s been rough sailing ever since. The Marlins are just 12-17 over the 19 games since the break, dropping their record to 64-62 overall with a +19 run differential. The Phillies, meanwhile, have gone 14-15 over the same sample and are now 68-58 with a +10 differential of their own. Of course, neither club is below .500, but they’re noticeably cold compared to some of the upside they flashed earlier on.
LHP Cade Gibson (2-0) is set to open for Miami this evening. The second-year arm has a 5.61 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP across 33.2 IP, coming out of the bullpen for each of his 29 games this season. He’s kept barrel rates down at a minimal 2.9% with low average exit velocity, but the other numbers aren’t exactly great. Miami’s bullpen also has a 3.94 ERA that sits 11th in the sport, complementing a 1.24 WHIP and a 13.8% K-BB%.
For Philly, ace RHP Zack Wheeler (10-4) is the starting arm. He’s been incredible this year with a 2.89 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 137 punchouts over 115.1 IP. He’s delivered a 30.2% K% with a nice 6.4% BB%, also generating excellent-to-elite chase and whiff rates while keeping barrels and exit velocity down. The Phillies’ relievers have an ERA of 4.41 that ranks 24th though, with a 1.34 WHIP and a stellar 16.5% K-BB%.
Looking at the state of the offenses since the All-Star break, there’s an edge towards the Phillies. They’ve put up an OPS of .749 that sits eighth in baseball and have scored the 10th-most runs over this span, so for the most part, the bats’ production remains intact. On the full season’s sample, they also maintain a top-12 ISO at .161 and have the ninth-most homers with 154. Against right-handed pitching, they slash a solid .243/.310/.411 with a .720 OPS, so they’ll hope that the bulk arm they face throws from that side given a .69% OPS against lefties.
The Marlins, meanwhile, are 18th in OPS since the break at .698 and have seen their scoring tumble to 20th in the sport. The issue has been converting with runners in scoring position, since a .310 wOBA remains quite respectable at 18th as well, though the ISO is down over this span to .141 from the season-long number of .154. Additionally, the Marlins’ 129 homers fall 23rd and they slash .255/.329/.411 with an OPS of .740 against right-handed pitching.
Marlins vs. Phillies pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Phillies as a strong -210 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, while the Marlins enter as +195 underdogs on the road. The total is set at eight combined runs.
Wheeler has seen his numbers tick upward slightly in recent weeks, allowing nine earned runs over his last two combined starts and four or more earned runs in three of his last four outings dating back to July 27. That one was a three-inning day against these same Marlins as they racked up six hits and two homers for five earned runs here in Philly. That’s a bit of a concern, as is the possibility of fatigue beginning to set in for the ace. With a 6.04 ERA and 1.43 WHIP since the break, he’s certainly not unhittable.
While the Phils’ offense has been better than their opponent’s over the last month or so, I think this is a great opportunity to take an outright underdog pick and select the Marlins to win outright at plus value. Wheeler has faded hard lately and was lit up last time he faced this team, and he’s also been marginally worse in his home starts than on the road as well. Plus, the Marlins’ splits are much better against right-handed pitching, too. If there’s ever a time to capitalize on recent form, this would appear to be it.
