Helping to kick off Tuesday’s four-game WNBA slate, the Los Angeles Sparks and Connecticut Sun will face off for the second time this season. It has not been the season that either organization has hoped, and they will play again on Saturday in Los Angeles.
Looking at the odds for this Sun home matchup, the Sparks enter as narrow 1.5-point favorites and hold -120 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun hold +100 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 172.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Sparks at Sun matchup.
Sparks at Sun Preview
The Los Angeles Sparks have slipped to 12th place in the WNBA standings with a 12-22 record on the year. They are looking to snap a four-game losing streak and have lost 11 of their past 13. On the season overall, the Sparks have gone 16-18 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 20 of their 34 games played.
Following the midseason trade of Kelsey Plum, Nneka Ogwumike headlines the scoring effort for Los Angeles. The former MVP and 11-time All-Star is posting averages of 16.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game on the year. Dearica Hamby adds 15.1 points and 7.3 rebounds of his own, while Rae Burrell contributes 14.1 points while knocking down 39.7% of her three-point attempts. Erica Wheeler and Ariel Akins also play important roles on the roster.
The Sparks are scoring 88.3 points per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Los Angeles also ranks 10th in offensive rating, fourth in field-goal percentage and ninth in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Sparks are conceding 93.0 points per game, which is the second-worst mark in the league. They also rank 13th in defensive rating, 14th in opponent field goal percentage, and seventh in opponent three-point percentage.
The Connecticut Sun have been officially eliminated from playoff contention after dropping to 8-25 on the season. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back losses and have dropped seven of their past eight. On the season, Connecticut has gone 16-17 against the spread, and the game total is 17-16 to the over/under.
Brittney Griner headlines the production for the Sun, posting averages of 13.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, but is currently battling a knee injury. Griner missed the previous loss to the Liberty, and her status will be one to monitor leading up to tip-off. Leila Lacan adds 11.8 points and a team-high 4.5 assists, while Olivia Nelson-Ododa is coming off a season-high 21-point outing in the previous game. Diamond Miller and Charlisse Leger-Walker also play key roles.
As a team, the Sun are scoring 79.3 points per game, which ranks last in the league. Connecticut also ranks 15th in offensive rating, 14th in field-goal percentage and 14th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 87.2 points per game against the Sun, which ranks eighth in the league. They also rank ninth in defensive rating, ninth in opponent field-goal percentage and 11th in opponent three-point percentage.
Sparks at Sun Pick, Best Bet
During the first matchup between these two teams, the Sun produced an 84-81 victory, which took place back on May 30th. Neither side was able to extend a lead beyond nine points, but Connecticut held a lead for 76% of the matchup. The Sun out-rebounded the Sparks 37-29 in the matchup and poured in 14 points on the fast break.
The outlook for both teams has worsened since this point, with players like Kelsey Plum and Aneesah Morrow traded from their respective squads. Both of these teams are limping to the finish line and will have some major discussions this offseason about their futures. Without much confidence in either side for this game, as they enter on a collective six-game losing streak, I am backing the under for this matchup.
Los Angeles has struggled to defend all season, and betting the over has been a cash cow in their games, with this number going over in 20 of their 34 games played overall. The Sparks are allowing the second-most points per game, rank 13th in defensive rating, and 14th in opponent field goal percentage. But Connecticut is not built to exploit this. The Sun rank dead last in points per game and offensive rating, as well as 14th in team field goal percentage. They have been held to 75 or fewer points in four consecutive games.
The game total finished at 165 in the first match between these two teams, and both have seen top scoring options leave their rosters since. While the game total is 17-16 on the season for the Sun, the total has gone under in four straight games, and the total has remained under in 10 of the 13 games they have been home underdogs. Expect both teams to struggle to put up points at the necessary level in this matchup and for the 172.5 line to be too lofty. This will be a sloppy offensive performance from both sides, and expect the first team to crack 70 to have a clear path to a win.
