The Minnesota Twins got back in the win column last night with a 4-2 victory at home over one of the MLB’s true contenders. The opponent? The Atlanta Braves, who remain one of the winningest clubs since the break. Will we get another upset tonight? Find out with first pitch set for 7:40 p.m. at Target Field.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Braves vs. Twins game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Twins prediction, preview
The Braves remain a very strong 19-11 since the All-Star break with one of the best records in baseball since then, but also on the year overall. On the full campaign, they’re still atop the NL East at 74-51 with a +115 run differential, so the loss last night is no reason to worry. The Twins are fighting to get back to .500 now and are inching closer at 61-65 on the year with a -46 differential. They do remain just 13-16 since the break, so things haven’t been great in Minnesota over the last month.
RHP Tyler Mahle (4-9) carries a 4.64 ERA into tonight’s start for the Braves with a 1.32 WHIP. He has struck out 105 hitters in 106.2 IP, good for a respectable 23.4% K% alongside an 8.7% BB%. By all means, this is an average MLB arm, but he’s been better over the last couple of months with a 2.82 ERA in July and a 3.06 mark in August. In addition to his better play, the club’s bullpen ranks third in ERA at 3.47 with a 1.19 WHIP and a 14.9% K-BB%.
Fellow RHP Zebby Matthews (6-8) is the starter for Minnesota tonight. His ERA is a high 5.34 with a 1.35 WHIP, and he brings just 77 punchouts over 91.0 IP into this matchup. His K% is 19.9% with a 7.8% BB%, while the average exit velocity and barrel rate are in the seventh and fifth percentiles. This season, the bullpen’s numbers are far from what the club wants to see, sitting 26th in ERA at 4.73 with a 1.50 WHIP and a 9.2% K-BB%.
The Braves racked up seven hits last night but scored just a pair of runs, but that’s just a bump in the road for a lineup that’s been quite good since the break. Over that sample, the club ranks ninth in OPS at .749 with the ninth-most runs scored. Power hitting is a plus with a .190 ISO and 45 home runs as well, but that’s not exactly a shocker for this team. Against right-handers, Atlanta also slashes .250/.315/.420 this season with a .735 OPS.
The Twins are trying to get back to the offense that made them a tough team to play against early in the year, but to varying degrees of success. They had 10 hits yesterday but have a .683 OPS since the break with and are 24th in runs scored since then as well. The pop at the plate has regressed some with an ISO of .135 with only 26 home runs over this same sample – that helps explain the drop-off in scoring. They do get a matchup with a right-hander, meaning the plus side of the splits at a .250/.318/.420 slash line and .739 OPS.
Braves vs. Twins pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Braves as a -140 Moneyline favorite on the road this evening, while the Twins enter as +131 underdogs at their own ballpark. The total is set at nine combined runs.
After last night’s loss, the Braves should get back on the right foot tonight. Mahle has pitched better over the last two months than he did in the season’s early stages and this bullpen is elite as previously mentioned. Beyond that, the matchup with Matthews is one that likely has hitters licking their chops – he’s allowed a homer in all but one of his last seven starts and is prone to giving up lots of hard contact. With Atlanta’s offense making the most of its power potential lately, this club should shell Matthews early and never look back.
