Editors Note: This article was initially published on August 18th. Nothing major has changed with either team in regards to the handicap. If anything, Arizona looks to be even weaker with Jeremiyah Love currently RB2 on the depth chart. The price on the bet has shifted slightly from -120 to -128, but I would still recommend the parlay at the current price.
Arizona Cardinals & Miami Dolphins NFL Win Total Parlay
It’s no secret, the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins are expected to be two of, if not the two worst teams in the NFL this season.
That was reflected when win totals opened at DraftKings Sports, with Miami and Arizona both opening at 4.5. It’s been taken to a new level, with both bet down to 3.5 — now the lowest win totals in NFL history for a 17-game schedule. Both teams move on from their starting quarterbacks, with Kyler Murray in Minnesota and Tua Tagovailoa in Atlanta. While both struggled prior to moving on to new franchises, neither team brought in any proven commodity to take over at the position.
Aside from QB downgrades, both of these rosters are completely lacking talent. Sure, you could argue De’Von Achane and Jeremiyah Love are talented backs, but there’s only so much that position can do with poor QB and offensive line play. Lack of explosiveness on offense, combined with very poor defenses … things are going to get ugly for these teams.
Aside from a huge void in talent, the bigger piece of the puzzle here might be the schedules. Generally, when you finish near the bottom of the standings, you get a more manageable schedule the following season. That’s not the case with the Dolphins and Cardinals, who somehow draw the two most difficult strength of schedules in the entire NFL.
Arizona, which went 3-14 last season, is priced as an underdog in all 17 games at DraftKings. The Cards are a dog of 8.5 or more in all six divisional games, and a double digit dog in the first three games of the season. They are somehow an underdog of a touchdown or more in each of their first 11 games. The first time Arizona is catching less than a TD is after Thanksgiving — +4.5 in Week 12 vs. Washington. Finally, after a Week 14 bye, is when a couple of potential wins are on the schedule — home underdogs of less than a field goal to the Jets and Raiders. But by that point, if things are as bad as it looks like they’ll be, the wheels may have fallen off and this team might not even be looking to win games.
Things aren’t much better for Miami, which did manage a 7-10 record last season. But the talent drain was even more significant for the Dolphins, who are clearly in a rebuilding year. Miami is favored in just one game this season, laying -1.5 to the Jets in late November. Three of the first four games are on the road, starting with a west coast trip to Vegas and San Francisco. Four of the first six are on the road if we go a little deeper, and the two home games are against the Chiefs and Bengals — both of whom have double digit win totals. Like the Cardinals, the Dolphins should get off to a brutal start, which could help the wheels fall off when the schedule becomes slightly more manageable later in the season.
I’d be fine backing either of these teams under their opening win totals of 4.5, which you can still do at prices of -186 for Arizona and -156 for Miami. However, I’m parlaying the two together on ALT win totals at UNDER 5.5. That gets us to a price of -120 on the parlay, and reaching six wins feels completely unobtainable for either of these rosters, especially with the schedules.
Look for ugly starts from both the Cardinals and Dolphins, before the seasons go on to completely spiral out of control. We’ll see both these franchises picking at the top of the 2027 NFL Draft, which will probably become a goal by the time November rolls around, if it isn’t already.
NFL Win Total Parlay: Cardinals UNDER 5.5/Dolphins UNDER 5.5 Wins (-120)
