The San Diego Padres are still rolling with the second-best record in the MLB since the All-Star break. With a month of excellent play under their belts, the Friars head to the Big Apple to take on the New York Mets, who have won three straight games and are actually above the .500 mark over the last month despite their flaws. First pitch at Citi Field is set for 7:10 p.m. on Monday night.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Padres vs. Mets game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Mets prediction, preview
A couple of months ago, this kind of stretch from San Diego would’ve been borderline unbelievable. The Padres are 19-10 since the All-Star break and have scored the fourth-most runs of any club over that span. They’ve taken eight of their last 10 outings at that and are now 67-58 with a +3 run differential on the year, so they’re certainly on a roll. The Mets are still far below .500 at 56-69 on the full season, holding a -42 run differential. However, they’re a respectable 16-12 since the break, even without Juan Soto in the lineup since July 24. Competitive baseball is the goal, and they’ve put that on display.
San Diego RHP Walker Buehler (7-5) gets the start tonight. He’s amassed a 4.88 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP this season – not the most impressive marks, but certainly serviceable. He’s also struck out 100 batters in 114.1 IP, a K% of just 20.1 with a 9.5% BB% as well. The chase and whiff rates won’t impress, but Buehler has kept his ERA down a little lower with a 3.14 mark in August across three starts. The Padres’ bullpen is among the best in baseball with a 3.59 ERA that ranks fifth on the year, plus a 1.25 WHIP and a 15.3% K-BB%.
For New York, standout RHP Nolan McLean (8-8) starts this outing. He carries a 3.42 ERA and 1.13 WHIP into this game with 159 punchouts over 136.2 IP. His K% sits at a lofty 28.0% with an 8.8% BB%, also bringing above-average grades in hard-hit rate and ground-ball rate. In particular, his fastball is effective with 98th-percentile run value, per Baseball Savant. The Mets’ relievers are sixth in ERA at 3.72 with a 1.24 WHIP and a 14.6% K-BB%.
The Padres’ bats are on fire as of late. They’ve scored the fourth-most runs of any club since the break and are averaging 5.38 per game over a 29-outing sample. That comes as a result of an MLB-best .803 OPS with a .176 ISO that’s good for eighth, while the 41 homers are fourth most of any club in this stretch. Plus, the plate approach looks great with a low 19.7% K% and an 0.51 BB/K ratio. They’ve also been more effective against right-handers this season with a slash line of .237/.316/.394 overall, good for a .711 OPS.
The Mets’ own bats have been much more respectable lately than for much of the campaign. Since the break, they’re 10th in OPS at .744 and are producing 4.46 runs per game. The ISO of .177 ranks sixth among all clubs over this span, while their 40 homers also rank fifth overall. However, a 25.2% K% is elevated and may be something the opposing arms key in on. The Mets also slash .236/.307/.389 on the year against right-handers with an OPS of .696.
Padres vs. Mets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mets as a -119 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, while the Padres enter as +111 underdogs on the road. The total is set at eight combined runs.
McLean does provide an advantage to New York tonight and he’s surely a big reason why the home club is favored as of now. The sample size is limited, but he’s been effective over his 17 career at-bats against San Diego’s hitters with a .476 OPS allowed; likewise, Buehler has faced off in 38 at-bats against Mets batters and allowed a .585 OPS in that sample. That’s not much to go off of for either side, and it’s noteworthy that both of these lineups are among the MLB’s upper third over the last month. However, the bullpens are both achievers this year as well, and with the run total at eight, there’s a little bit of wiggle room for the under to cash. I’m comfortable with the under here.
