Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s night slate: Matt Olson, Jac Caglianone and Shohei Ohtani.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | +251 | Olson clubbed his 36th home run of the year on Sunday against the Diamondbacks, continuing what has been a red-hot month of August for the slugger. The veteran has seven long balls since the calendar flipped with a .462 ISO and a 182 wRC+. He’ll look to add to those impressive numbers on Monday in a matchup with Bailey Ober, who gave up three home runs in his last outing. |
| Jac Caglianone | +397 | Caglianone is on a heater in August, coming into tonight’s contest slashing .407/.429/.759 with a .352 ISO and a 225 wRC+ in the month. Then there’s the presence of Mason Barnett. The converted reliever owns an 8.78 ERA in his three starts in 2026, and overall, he’s surrendering a laughable 2.61 opponent home runs per nine. What’s not to like? |
| Shohei Ohtani | +189 | I don’t usually pick players in this market with odds below 2/1. I also usually don’t care too much about BvP stats. However, this will be the exception to both of those statements. Tomoyuki Sugano isn’t very good. The RHP is surrendering 2.52 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs, and that lines up perfectly with a first percentile xERA (6.93) and the first percentile opponent barrel rate (13.7%). In MLB, the former NPB stars have faced-off eight times. Ohtani is 5-for-8 with three home runs. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+251)
It took a couple seasons, but it finally looks like the 2023 version of Matt Olson has returned. The veteran clubbed his 36th home run of the year on Sunday against the Diamondbacks, continuing what has been a red-hot month of August for the slugger. To wit, Olson has seven long balls since the calendar flipped with a .462 ISO and a 182 wRC+. For 2026 as a whole, Olson also sports a 98th percentile expected slugging rate (.525) and a 95th percentile barrel rate (15.9%). He’ll look to add to those impressive numbers on Monday in a matchup with Bailey Ober and the Twins. In his last start, Ober surrendered three home runs, something that has oft been an issue for the extreme fly ball pitcher. Across 18 outings, the RHP is conceding 1.88 long balls per nine to opposing left-handed hitters — left-handed hitters like Olson.
Jac Caglianone 1+ Home Run (+397)
While I can appreciate that this game is taking place at Kauffman Stadium, not Sutter Health Park, I’m still not sure why Caglianone’s home runs odds are hovering around 4/1. Just like the aforementioned Olson, Caglianone is on a heater in August, coming into tonight’s contest slashing .407/.429/.759 with a .352 ISO and a 225 wRC+ in the month. The stats underneath the hood look great, too. Caglianone’s been able to translate 98th percentile bat speed (77.4) into a 98th percentile hard hit rate (55.3%) and a 97th percentile expected slugging rate (.514). It didn’t take long for the former sixth-overall pick to start living up to the hype. Then there’s the presence of Mason Barnett. The converted reliever owns an 8.78 ERA in his three starts in 2026, and overall, he’s surrendering a laughable 2.61 opponent home runs per nine. What’s not to like?
Shohei Ohtani 1+ Home Run (+189)
I don’t usually pick players in this market with odds below 2/1. I also usually don’t care too much about BvP stats. However, this will be the exception to both of those statements. You probably don’t need a statistical reminder that Ohtani is good at baseball, but let me just quickly say that the reigning NL MVP owns 99th percentile marks in both expected wOBA (.404) and expected slugging rate (.568) so far this season. You might not need me to remind you that Tomoyuki Sugano isn’t very good, either. Sugano is surrendering a whopping 2.52 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs, and that lines up perfectly with a first percentile xERA (6.93) and the first percentile opponent barrel rate (13.7%). In MLB, the former NPB stars have faced-off eight times. Ohtani is 5-for-8 with three home runs. Need I say more?
