There are 11 games of MLB action across today’s Monday slate. With the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, the Miami Marlins are set to open a series against the Philadelphia Phillies. There are some additional stakes in this NL East matchup, as the Phillies currently hold possession of a Wild Card seed with the Marlins three games behind them. With the playoff race heating up, this is a series that could carry some major weight at the season’s conclusion.
Looking at the odds for the series opening matchup, the Phillies enter as -243 favorites and hold -118 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Marlins hold +224 odds to win outright, with the run total set at eight.
Marlins at Phillies prediction, preview
The Miami Marlins enter with a 64-61 record on the season. They sit in third place in the NL East, 10.5 games back behind the Braves, and are three games out of the Wild Card race. The Marlins enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins over the Reds, and Miami has won six of their past eight. On the season overall, Miami has gone 63-62 to the run line, and the run total is 61-61-3 to the over/under.
Janson Junk will be on the mound for the Marlins today, marking his 18th of the season. The 30-year-old enters with a 6-7 record, a 4.41 ERA, a 1.323 WHIP, 12 home runs, and 64 strikeouts tallied across 87.2 innings pitched. Junk has faced off with this Phillies lineup in 34 at-bats in his career. Philadelphia has tallied seven hits and struck out 10 times in these opportunities, with Bryce Harper having recorded a home run against him.
At the plate, the Marlins are slashing a collective .250/.326/.403 with a .730 OPS. They rank 10th in the league in hits, 17th in total runs, 23rd in home runs, and 20th in strikeouts. Otto Lopez leads the MLB with 150 hits this season, along with a .308 batting average and 53 RBI. Xavier Edwards has tallied 129 hits and 46 RBI as the lone other player with over 100 hits on the year. Heriberto Hernandez leads the team with 18 home runs and 50 RBI, while Owen Caissie, Griffin Conine, and Joe Mack also play notable roles.
It was a slow start to the season for the Philadelphia Phillies, but their playoff goals are still within reach. They enter tonight’s matchup with a 67-58 record on the year, 7.5 games behind the Braves for the top spot in the NL East and holding a one-game lead for the Wild Card. Philadelphia swept the Twins in their previous matchup, which marks the team’s first series sweep since the beginning of June. On the season overall, the Phillies have gone 50-75 to the run line, and the run total is 55-62-8 to the over/under.
Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for the Phillies, looking to add to his stellar start to the year. Across his first 25 starts, Sanchez enters with a 15-4 record, a 2.54 ERA, a 1.195 WHIP, 13 home runs allowed, and 181 strikeouts tallied. Sanchez hit a bit of a midseason lull after one of the best starts to the year in all of baseball, but has held the opponent scoreless in two of his past three starts. The two-time All-Star has faced off with this Marlins team in 53 at-bats across his career. He has limited Miami to nine hits, a .408 OPS, and recorded 13 strikeouts across these opportunities.
The Phillies are slashing a collective .239/.310/.401 with a .711 OPS at the plate. They rank 20th in the league in hits, 15th in total runs, ninth in home runs, and have struck out the eighth-most times. Trea Turner leads the team with 122 hits on the season, along with 17 home runs and 47 RBI. Brandon Marsh adds 119 hits, plus 17 home runs and 54 RBI, while Bryce Harper contributes 112 hits, 25 home runs and a team-high 72 RBI. Kyle Schwarber is the lone other player with 100+ hits and leads the MLB with 37 home runs on the year. Luis Arraez has provided a nice stylistic contrast in their lineup and was their biggest addition at the trade deadline, while Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto also play key roles.
Marlins at Phillies pick, best bet
There is a sizable gap in pitching talent between these two teams. Cristopher Sanchez is one of the best pitchers in baseball, currently ranking third in NL Cy Young voting at +1100 on DraftKings Sportsbook. He has an MLB-leading 15 wins on the season, and the Phillies are 18-7 in games that he has started overall. The loss to the Cardinals in his previous start snapped a five-game winning streak by the Phillies in games he started, and they have won eight of the last 10 that Sanchez has been on the mound.
In contrast, Janson Junk is posting a 4.41 ERA on the season and a 4.70 ERA for his career. The right-hander is posting a 6-7 record on the season, 13-14 in his career, and the Marlins are 8-9 in games he has started this year. Junk is posting a 5.61 ERA across his past nine starts and has allowed six or more runs in three of these matchups.
This will be a problem against a Phillies offense that is finally playing to the level their payroll commands. Philadelphia put up 23 runs across the previous series sweep of the Twins, including scrapping out of a 5-0 hole to get the win in yesterday’s matchup. The Phillies tallied nine or more hits in each of these games and produced five home runs in the series.
Facing a favorable matchup with Junk on the mound and the bats coming alive, expect this matchup to play to the Phillies’ favor. Sanchez has consistently put the Phillies in positions to win, even while the bats have let him down on plenty of occasions. The approach at the plate has been much better across the board of late, as the Phillies have become less reliant on home runs and played more small ball. This is an important matchup as the Marlins are still chasing the Phillies in the standings and count on Philadelphia carrying themselves with the necessary intensity.
Count on Sanchez mowing through this mediocre Marlins lineup tonight, as he has made it look seamless all season even against stiffer competition, to put the Phillies in a position to win. Philadelphia’s bats have been red-hot, and expect this to carry over with them seeing a favorable pitching matchup. It has been a turbulent overall season for the Phillies, but they are showing some flashes of finding their stride at the right time and expect this to be put on display tonight. Don’t blink at the 1.5-run line spread, and expect the Phillies to leap out to a comfortable lead in the early stages of this matchup.
Best bet: Phillies -1.5 (-118)
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