Facing off as part of the mild 11-game MLB slate, the Detroit Tigers will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates.
This is the first matchup between this pair of interleague opponents, who each enter this matchup four games below .500. The Tigers finds themselves just one game back in the American League Wild Card race, while there is a 6.5-game gap ahead of the Pirates and the final Wild Card seed in the National League.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Tigers enter as narrow -106 favorites on the Moneyline and hold +144 odds of covering the -1.5 Run Line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pirates hold -101 odds of winning outright, with the run total set at O/U 8.5.
Tigers at Pirates prediction, preview
The Detroit Tigers enter with a 60-64 record on the season. They trail the White Sox by 5.5 games for the top spot in the AL Central, but they are just one game back from the last Wild Card seed. Detroit is looking to bounce back from being swept by the White Sox in the previous series, which snapped a streak of four consecutive series that it had won. On the season, the Tigers have gone 63-61 to the run line, and the run total is 55-63-6 to the over/under.
Framber Valdez will take the mound for the Tigers tonight. The two-time All-Star enters with a 7-8 record, a 4.26 ERA, a 1.391 WHIP, 13 home runs allowed and 106 strikeouts tallied across his 133.0 innings pitched. He has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 15 of his 24 starts. Valdez has faced off with this Pirates roster in 30 at-bats in his career, with seven hits and eight strikeouts tallied.
At the plate, the Tigers are slashing a collective .242/.319/.408 with a .727 OPS. Detroit ranks 17th in the MLB in hits, 12th in total runs, 12th in home runs, and it has tallied the 14th-most strikeouts. Kevin McGonigle leads the team with 129 hits along with 12 home runs and 48 RBIs. Riley Greene adds 115 hits, 16 home runs and 54 RBIs, but he is currently sidelined with an injury. Dillon Dingler is the other lone player with more than 100 hits. In addition to his 114 total hits, Dingler leads the team with 26 home runs and 82 RBIs. Spencer Torkelson adds 20 home runs and 63 RBIs, while Zach McKinstry, Gleyber Torres and Javier Baez also play notable roles.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are off to a 61-65 start to the season. They sit in fourth place in the National League Central and are 6.5 games out of the Wild Card race. Pittsburgh took two of three against the Red Sox in the previous game, but it has lost eight of its last 12. On the season overall, the Pirates have gone 62-64 against the spread, and the run total is 70-52-4 to the over/under.
Carmen Mlodzinski will take the mound for the Pirates tonight, marking his 12th start and 28th appearance of the season. The 27-year-old enters with a 6-5 record, a 3.79 ERA, a 1.405 WHIP, eight home runs allowed and 78 strikeouts tallied across his 99.2 innings pitched. Mlodzinski has not pitched more than four innings since May 25th, but the Pirates are 19-8 in games he has pitched. The Tigers have faced off with Mlodzinski in just 11 at-bats in his career, and they have tallied two hits and three strikeouts in these opportunities.
Pittsburgh is slashing a collective .257/.333/.412 with a .745 OPS. It leads the major league in hits, ranks third in total runs, 11th in home runs, and it has tallied the most strikeouts in baseball. Nick Gonzales leads the team with 137 hits along with 53 RBIs. Bryan Reynolds has notched 122 hits, 15 home runs and 65 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe leads the team with 26 home runs and 79 RBIs, along with his 117 total hits. Jake Mangum is the lone other player to have notched 100+ hits this season, while Spencer Horwitz, Jared Triolo and Henry Davis also play important roles.
Tigers at Pirates pick, best bet
My lean would be Framber Valdez doing enough to put the Tigers in a position to win and Detroit getting a victory in this matchup. Carmen Mlodzinski struggles to pitch deep into games, and there are plenty of weak spots in this Pirates bullpen that can be exploited. Pittsburgh showed a real spark this year, and its outlook is still not completely bleak, but the level of optimism for this team has been scaled back as the season has progressed.
But I am backing the game total to go over the 8.5 run line in this matchup. Detroit was just swept by the White Sox in the previous series, where it allowed 20 total runs across three games. Valdez has had a solid season, but he has also allowed four or more earned runs in four of his past eight outings. This is a Pirates team that does a nice job of hitting for contact, and don’t expect Valdez to escape this outing unscathed.
On the other side of the matchup, Mlodzinski has allowed nine earned runs across his past 5.1 innings pitched, and he is posting a 7.31 ERA across his past six games. While the 20 runs allowed were far from ideal from Detroit’s perspective, it scored 13 of its own in the sweep at the hands of the White Sox.
The game total is 70-52-4 to the over/under on the season for the Pirates, and it is 41-21-1 during home games. The over has chased in five of the past seven Pirates games. Pittsburgh has also seen the game total go over in six of the last seven matchups between these two teams. From the Tigers’ perspective, the total has gone over in 12 of their past 18 games. Expect both of these teams to pull their weight offensively and for the game total to clear the 8.5 run line.
Best bet: Game Total Over 8.5 (-105)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
