The Atlanta Braves went through a rough patch heading into the All-Star break, but they’ve been one of the MLB’s top contenders once again since that point. They’re set to start a new series on the road this evening against the Minnesota Twins, who have been fighting to get back to .500 as a formerly high-achieving offense has struggled in recent weeks. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Braves vs. Twins game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Twins prediction, preview
The Braves are once again firing on all cylinders – since the All-Star break, they’re a strong 19-10 and tied for the second-best record in baseball. On the full campaign, they’re sitting atop the NL East at 74-50 with a +117 run differential, and that’s even after slipping slightly at 5-5 over their last 10 outings. The Twins aren’t as fortunate though, falling to 60-65 on the year with a -48 differential. Now only 12-16 since the break, they’ve dropped to third in the AL Central.
Veteran LHP Martin Perez (8-6) starts for Atlanta this evening amidst an excellent year. He boasts a 2.96 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, although his 80 strikeouts over 106.1 IP aren’t impressive. That gives him a K% of just 18.6% along with a 10.0% BB%, but he keeps barrels to a minimum for the most part and forces more ground balls than average. Plus, the club’s bullpen ranks fourth in ERA at 3.50 with a 1.20 WHIP and a 14.9% K-BB%.
RHP Bailey Ober (7-4) is the starter for Minnesota tonight. He carries a 4.64 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP across 99.0 IP, but also lacks punchout upside with 67 strikeouts over that span. His K% is only 16.1%, but his 6.0% BB% borders on the elite range and his hard-hit rate is relatively low. The relief staff got reinforcements at the trade deadline but the season-long numbers are rough, sitting 26th in ERA at 4.78 with a 1.51 WHIP and a 9.2% K-BB%.
The Braves’ offense continues to click since the break, ranking seventh in club OPS at .756 and scoring the eighth-most runs over this span. The power of this lineup is on full display with a .195 ISO and 45 home runs that both pace the MLB, but a .328 wOBA is also good for seventh among all clubs. Against right-handers, Atlanta slashes .250/.316/.422 this season with a .737 OPS.
The Twins were one of the best offenses in the sport before the break, but they’ve cooled off significantly since then – a .680 OPS is a far cry from the .738 mark seen before the All-Star festivities, and they’re just 24th in runs scored since then as well. A .301 wOBA that falls 21st explains some of the drop, as does a fall-off to 23rd in ISO at .138. Their 26 home runs over this same sample rank just 25th, as well. They could be in trouble against a lefty after slashing .232/.322/.369 with a .691 OPS in the split this year.
Braves vs. Twins pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Braves as a -124 Moneyline favorite on the road this evening, while the Twins enter as +116 underdogs at their own ballpark. The total is set at nine combined runs.
While Perez doesn’t rack up strikeouts at a high rate, he is a southpaw with a relatively low WHIP and the opposing lineup really struggles in terms of slugging against left-handed pitching. He sees an advantageous matchup in this one, as does the batting order backing him up – Atlanta has some great numbers against right-handers. Even with Ober keeping the hard-hit rate down, the Braves are positioned to hit him around tonight, and the Twins’ bullpen is an even more attractive group to face. Given the cold stretch from the home club and that the visitors have largely been warm since the break, I’m following the splits and the form while backing the Braves for an outright win.
