Over the last decade, Drew Brees devastated opposing defenses, leading to four straight NFC South crowns from 2017 to 2020. Then the GOAT, aka Tom Brady, took his talents to Tampa Bay, won two division crowns and, ho hum, another Super Bowl ring. It was a glorious time filled with opulence and touchdowns, but then the Dark Ages arrived.
And in the NFL, that means a lack of quarterbacks. Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Kyle Trask…Do I have to keep going?
As a result, two of the last four division winners had a losing record. How absurd is that? Well, the feat has been accomplished five times in NFL history!
Here’s how things stack up on DraftKings Sportsbook for the upcoming season:
After TB left TB, the Buccaneers brought in the reclamation project that was Baker Mayfield. The former first overall pick in the 2018 draft fizzled out and spent year five in Carolina and with the Los Angeles Rams. The five games with Los Angeles rejuvenated him and he then became an integral reason why there was no post-TB hangover, resulting in two more NFC South division crowns.
Unfortunately, injuries decimated the Buccaneers last season. Mayfield dealt with knee, arm and shoulder injuries. Running back Bucky Irving missed time due to foot and shoulder issues. Wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missed multiple games while the offensive line suffered huge losses.
Josh Grizzard is out as offensive coordinator and in comes Zac Robinson, who was the quarterback coach in Tampa Bay back in 2022. While Evans is no longer a part of the wide receiver group, a triumvirate of Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan has potential. The running back group is solid with Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker while Kenny Gainwell was brought into the mix and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield.
Most importantly, the offensive line looks to be healthy and is rated the third-best by PFF entering this season.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has been very stout against the run but porous through the air. The rush defense should continue to be one of the better units in the game, but there are question marks in pass defense. While more athleticism has been inserted, the linebackers and secondary will be very young, so there will likely be growing pains.
People aren’t exactly dancing in the streets of the Bayou, but there is optimism for the New Orleans Saints due to the offense. Second-round selection, quarterback Tyler Shough, didn’t run from his shadow when given the chance last season and looked more than competent, completing 67.6% of his 327 attempts for 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. There are weapons galore for Shough with Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson and Jordyn Tyson the likely target earners. The backfield was bolstered with the acquisition of Travis Etienne Jr.
At the end of the day, though, it’s the brilliance and creativity of Kellen Moore that should have the Saints go marchin’ in for plenty of touchdowns.
On defense, the Saints were decent against the pass, posting the 13th-best EPA per dropback. The unit was eighth in pressure rate last season with Chase Young and Carl Granderson getting busy off the edge. The run defense, though. New Orleans allowed the second-most EPA per carry. The 20 touchdowns allowed were fifth-most while the 4.9 yards per carry were second-most.
Carolina “won” the division crown last season, but due to tie breakers as Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta all finished with 8-9 records. Still, it’s a tremendous accomplishment considering the team bottomed out in 2022 with only two wins, allowing them to select their franchise quarterback in Bryce Young. But, but, but…is Young THE franchise quarterback? That is the million dollar question.
Sure, Carolina has improved from two to four to eight wins, but not due to Young per se. Young attempted 478 passes last season in 16 starts. 10 quarterbacks threw over 500 passes last season with two at 600 or more. That said, Sam Darnold attempted 477 passes in 17 games and helped win a Super Bowl. In addition, Young did show improvement, upping the TD% from 3.9 to 4.8 while the INT% remained steady at 2.3. The sack rate has also gone down from 10.53% his rookie season to 5.35% last year.
The Panthers do have weapons on offense. Tetairoa McMillan, Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker make for an enticing, young wide receiver group. Chuba Hubbard is rock steady while Jonathon Brooks oozes with upside. Granted, Brooks may also be damaged goods, but that hasn’t been confirmed or denied yet.
Carolina on defense allowed the highest EPA per carry and most yards per carry (5.2) last season. The 3,057 yards allowed were the most by a significant margin, 653 more than second place, and the 24 touchdowns allowed were the second-most. The pass defense allowed the 10th-most EPA per dropback, but the 15 interceptions were tied for the sixth-most. Jaelan Phillips was added to provide more juice off the edge while Devin Lloyd should solidify the belly of the defense.
There’s upside with this Panthers team and Carolina should not be dismissed, but there are indeed legitimate question marks.
Speaking of young talent, Atlanta may have one of the best young stables in the league. Bijan Robinson is arguably the best running back in the game. Kyle Pitts was selected fourth overall in the 2021 draft for reasons. Granted, he hasn’t lived up to that draft capital, at least not yet. Drake London may not be in the top tier of wide receivers, but he’s very close. Xavier Watts is an exciting player on defense.
But there have been changes up and down the organization ladder. New general manager. New coach. New scheme. In addition, it’s a quarterback league and that is where the biggest question lies for Atlanta.
Michael Penix Jr. is recovering from a knee injury while Tua Tagovailoa has dealt with his own head injuries in the past and was discarded by Miami. Good news for both quarterbacks is that the offensive line looks to be very good, rated as the ninth-best unit by PFF heading into the season.
Defensively, Atlanta was middle of the pack in both run and pass defense. The 16 interceptions were fifth-most while the 57 sacks were second-most. Unfortunately, the top pass rusher from last season, James Pearce Jr., will be suspended for eight games for domestic violence while Jalon Walker tore his ACL in camp. The defensive line looks to be soft and had issues limiting explosive runs last season.
