All 30 teams are in action today across a loaded MLB slate. The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays will open up the day with first pitch scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET, and it will build all the way out to the Sunday Night Baseball matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros. With some favorable weather and intriguing pitching matchups, here are my top three home run props across the 15-game MLB slate, featuring Alex Bregman, Jac Caglianone and Julio Rodriguez.
It should be a great Sunday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | Red Sox | Bregman is slashing .351/.412/.688 with a 1.100 OPS and six home runs across his past 19 games played. He is facing Hunter Dobbins, and is 3-for-5 with a HR against him in his career already. |
| Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | Caglianone has tallied 22 home runs on the season, and is slashing .406/.415/.750 with a 1.165 OPS across his past 16 games. He has six HRs across this stretch. Caglianone is facing Ryan Johnson on the mound, who has 14 HRs allowed in 11 starts this year and this is a favorable matchup for the Royals’ slugger. |
| Julio Rodriguez | Seattle Mariners | Rodriguez has 1 HR against Hunter Brown in his career already, and he is slashing .314/.426/510 with a .936 OPS across his past 14 games. The Astros bullpen has also conceded 70 HRs already this year, and Rodriguez has hit three long balls in his past 10 games. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive deeper into these three plays on Sunday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Alex Bregman to Hit a Home Run (+640)
In his first season with the Chicago Cubs, Alex Bregman has settled in nicely and has been especially impressive at the plate of late. He is posting overall slash lines of .253/.344/.405 with a .749 OPS on the season, with 16 home runs and 61 RBIs. Over his past 19 games, Bregman is slashing .351/.412/.688 with a 1.100 OPS. He has 27 hits, six home runs and 17 RBIs over this period alone.
Look for him to remain hot as he faces off with Hunter Dobbins on the mound for the Cardinals today. The right-hander has made just nine appearances and six starts this year, allowing six home runs in 45.0 innings of work. He has faced the Cubs twice this season and allowed 11 hits, five earned runs and two home runs in just 9.0 innings of work. Bregman has been responsible for some of this damage, as he is 3-for-5 against Dobbins with a double and a home run in these opportunities.
After posting underwhelming power numbers for the bulk of the season, Bregman is making up for lost time and has been red-hot at the plate. Facing a favorable pitching matchup that he has had success against already, expect this trend to continue. Few hitters are seeing the ball as well as the three-time All-Star right now, and back Bregman to record his 17th home run of the season and 10th since July 10th.
Jac Caglianone to Hit a Home Run (+317)
It has been a breakout season for Jac Caglianone in his second year in the MLB. The Home Run Derby participant is posting overall slash lines of .274/.325/.494 with a .819 OPS on the season. Caglianone has tallied 22 home runs and 58 RBIs, and he has caught fire at the plate again of late. Across his past 16 games, the 23-year-old is slashing an absurd .406/.415/.750 with a 1.165 OPS. He has tallied 26 hits, 48 total bases, six home runs and 21 RBIs across this stretch.
Caglianone has a great chance to add to this as he faces off against a vulnerable Angels pitching staff today. Ryan Johnson will be making that start for Los Angeles, marking his 15th appearance and 12th start of the season. The right-hander enters with a 6.71 ERA, a 1.564 WHIP, and he has allowed 14 home runs on the season.
While Johnson has never faced this Royals lineup before, Caglianone profiles well against his skill set. Eight of the 14 home runs allowed by Johnson have come against left-handed hitters, while 15 of Caglianone’s 22 home runs have come against right-handed pitching. The Royals’ slugger is posting a .854 OPS against righties compared to .742 when facing left-handed pitching this season. Johnson also leans on his cutter as his most frequent pitch at nearly 31% of the time. This is the pitch that Caglianone has punished most this season. With a favorable matchup and Caglianone delivering at the plate at a high rate as of late, expect him to add to his home run total tonight.
Julio Rodriguez to Hit a Home Run (+541)
In the final matchup of the MLB slate, Julio Rodriguez and the Mariners will take on the Astros. It has been a mildly disappointing season for the three-time All-Star thus far, as Rodriguez is posting slash lines of .259/.325/.426 with a .751 OPS on the season. Each of these is below his career average marks. But Rodriguez is showing some positive signs of heating up and is looking to add to his 19 home runs and 52 RBIs on the season. Across his past 14 games, the two-time Silver Slugger is slashing .314/.426/.510 with a .936 OPS. He has tallied 16 hits across this stretch, including three home runs.
Hunter Brown will be on the mound for the Astros today, but he has not had the season he desires. The 27-year-old will be making just his 13th start, and he is posting a 3.68 ERA, a 1.272 WHIP, and he has given up eight home runs on the season. Brown has allowed at least one home run in seven of his 12 starts, including three straight entering tonight’s matchup.
Rodriguez has had more experience against Brown than any other member of the Seattle lineup, with 24 at-bats logged. The Mariners star has tallied eight hits in these opportunities, including two doubles, a home run and five RBIs. Rodriguez enters this game on a four-game hitting streak, including logging two hits yesterday, and he has three home runs across his past 10 games played. Expect him to remain hot at the plate and look to punish Brown or an Astros bullpen that has conceded 70 home runs all year, which is tied for the fifth-worst mark in baseball.
