Now this is going to be a fun battle. As things stand, the Indiana Fever and the Atlanta Dream are the fourth and fifth seeds in the WNBA playoff race, respectively. In their fourth and final matchup of the regular season, there are significant playoff implications, not only in the win-loss record but also in the head-to-head record. This one is going to be fun.
The Dream enter as 1.5-point home favorites with -125 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fever are +105 underdogs, with the game total set at 188.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Fever-Dream matchup.
Fever vs. Dream Prediction, Preview
So far, the Atlanta Dream are leading the season series 2-1. Indiana won the first matchup at home by an 83-71 margin during Commissioner’s Cup play in early June. Then, at the end of the month, the two teams squared off for a home-and-home back-to-back. Those were some serious shootouts. Atlanta won the road leg 108-101, then took the home leg 113-96. Indiana’s porous defense had no answer for the Dream, and they stormed their way through the back-to-back to take the lead in the season series.
The stakes are difficult to overstate here. Indiana is only 0.5 games ahead of Atlanta in the standings, holding the fourth seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. With less than a quarter of the season remaining, all of these games are crucial. Atlanta will be determined to leap Indiana in the standings, steal home-court advantage, and win the head-to-head tiebreaker in a potential playoff matchup. If the Fever win, they build a 1.5-game cushion and put the tiebreaker between the two teams up in the air. Suffice it to say, both squads will put their best foot forward for this game.
For the Fever to win, they’ll need to do a better job on defense. Not only did the Dream score 100-plus points in their two wins, but they also got double-digit points from all five starters in both games. Indiana’s defense has been a weak point all season, and it’s struggled to contain offenses as diverse as the Dream’s. Their weak perimeter defense got shredded by Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Jordin Canada in those two losses. They all need to step up, or else the Dream will roll right over them.
For Atlanta, it’s all about containing Indiana’s backcourt offensively. Caitlin Clark is on a roll, and Kelsey Mitchell is the most dangerous backcourt scorer in the league. Luckily, Howard is a defensive weapon, but she can’t defend both herself. Canada’s height is a problem that cannot be solved, and the Fever will try to pick on her all night long. Atlanta will have to be sharp in rotation to keep Clark and Mitchell in check. They’ll also have to be careful not to let Aliyah Boston fall out of their sight.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who will pull out the win, and how should we bet on this game?
Fever vs. Dream Pick, Best Bet
One thing is for sure: points, points, points. Atlanta has struggled through all three matchups to keep a lid on Clark, Mitchell, and Boston. But it’s nothing compared to the problems Indiana has with Atlanta’s offense. Things could change if Canada is ruled out due to her illness, but if she’s in the lineup and ready to go, the Fever won’t have an answer. Points will fly, and the Dream will come out on top.
