After six consecutive seasons of failing to finish above .500, the 2025 Chicago Bears broke out and went 11-6 in the regular season. They went on to beat the Packers in dramatic fashion in the playoffs, before coming up just short in another wild game against the Rams.
Overall, Ben Johnson’s first season in Chicago was a success, and bettors have taken notice. The Bears are one of the most popular wagers at DraftKings Sports to win the Super Bowl this season. They’re also just behind the Lions in terms of popularity to win the NFC North, with 35% of the bets for 31% of the money.
However, both of those wagers offer strong plus-money on the outcomes, and are more attractive to bettors. When it comes to Chicago’s win total in 2026, 75% of the money has come in on the Bears going UNDER 9.5 wins. So why would this team regress in 2026?
Chicago Bears O/U 9.5 Wins
I don’t want to take away too much from the growth the Bears saw in 2025. Caleb Williams is developing into a clutch quarterback and the defense found ways to force key turnovers. Some of that is skill, and we can count on the Bears to win some close games again this season. However, when you look at just how much broke right for Chicago in 2025, it’s difficult to say that it will catch lightning in a bottle at quite the same rate.
The Bears started the season 0-2, and also lost their final two games of the regular season. In between they went on an epic 11-2 hot streak. Chicago went 7-4 in one-score games, which isn’t absurd, but when you look at how the Bears did it, it’s unlikely to be sustainable.
The Bears had six comeback wins in the fourth quarter alone, many of which were flipped on massive singular plays. Chicago was trailing late in games and on defense, but multiple times wound up forcing turnovers that led to last-second winning plays. Again, credit the Bears for being clutch, but can they be this clutch on both sides of the ball again?
Chicago’s defense had a whopping 23 interceptions last season, and finished the regular season a plus-22 in turnover margin. Both of those marks led the NFL. If a few of those coin flip games go the other way, you’re looking at an eight to nine win team. If the turnover margin regresses, which it almost always does, the struggle becomes even tougher.
The Bears did acknowledge that the secondary needed help and signed Coby Bryant away from the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks. However, Bryant suffered a knee injury in camp and could miss the entire regular season.
Chicago had a trio of wide receivers finish with more than 650 yards last season. DJ Moore led that group with 682 receiving yards, but is now one of Josh Allen’s new weapons in Buffalo. The idea is that Luther Burden will step into Moore’s role, and while Burden is a hot name in fantasy football this summer, it remains to be seen if this offense can pickup the slack for Moore without adding another weapon. It’s also worth mentioning that Burden suffered a groin injury and has been shutdown for the preseason.
I feel it’s a very reasonable expectation to call for the Bears’ turnover margin to slim down in 2026, potentially by a significant amount. Less forced turnovers leads to fewer comeback opportunities. So even if Ben Johnson’s offense doesn’t regress at all, even with the loss of its WR1, a slip on the defensive end alone would likely hold the 2026 Bears back from finishing with as strong of a record as the 2025 version.
Maybe this team is still good enough to sneak into the playoffs, but playing in one of the toughest divisions in football, I don’t see another double digit win season in Chicago.
NFL Pick: Bears UNDER 9.5 Wins (-120)
