The Billy Napier experiment has come to an end in Gainesville. Had Napier not finished the 2024 season on a 4-0 hot streak, we’d likely be talking about four losing seasons during his tenor at Florida. Instead he had one winning record in four seasons leading the Gators, and was the first coach in nearly 100 years to depart the football program with a losing record overall.
Enter Jon Sumrall, who much like Napier, arrives in Gainesville after a lot of success at significantly smaller programs. Sumrall went 42-12 at Troy and Tulane, including a College Football Playoff appearance in 2025. While Sumrall will tell you he’s looking to make a Curt Cignetti-type impact at Florida, it’s hard to forget the struggles Napier just had with the program.
So what can we expect from the Gators in 2026?
Florida Gators Win Total Prediction
Hitting the reset button when it comes to the leadership of the program was the right move for Florida. And while Sumrall could turn out to be a great hire, he still has to find ways to win in the SEC. You can change whatever you want from a coaching standpoint, but SEC success also requires elite talent, and I’m not sure the Gators did much to improve their talent off last season’s 4-8 team.
For starters, Florida downgraded at quarterback. DJ Lagway was considered one of the most talented QB prospects in the country, but mostly struggled in 2025 — highlighted by his five interception game against LSU. The Gators averaged just 18.5 points per game against FBS competition, and Lagway is off to Baylor.
Buster Faulkner comes over from Georgia Tech to run the offense, which has nowhere to go but up. He had a lot of success there in recent seasons with Haynes Kings, but Aaron Philo comes with him from GT and will be the Gator’s QB this season. Philo is relatively unproven at the college level. Most college football publications rank the QB room and offensive line at Florida among the bottom of the SEC, which will create struggles.
The strength of this Florida roster is the skill position players. Jadan Baugh returns in the backfield, along with some talented recruits at receiver. But the elite ball carriers are only going to be as good as the QB and OL allows them to be.
The defense doesn’t appear in position to do many favors for the offense. Every position group ranks in the bottom half of the SEC according to major publications. Pick Six Previews projects the linebackers as the strength of the defense, ranking 9th out of 17 teams in the conference. The defensive line ranks 11th, with the defensive backs all the way down at 15th. Florida could struggle to contain big plays from opposing offenses.
Then there’s the daunting schedule. In 2025, Florida got non-conference wins to start the season over an FCS squad in LIU, and to end the season against a struggling Florida State squad. In SEC play, it only got two wins — a grind over a bad Mississippi State team by two points, and then a stunning upset over Texas for the obvious win of the season. All four wins came at home. Six of the eight losses were by double digits.
Florida should start the season 2-0, hosting FAU and Campbell in the first two games. But with a win total of 7.5, the Gators would need to go 6-4 the rest of the way to go over their win total. That seems improbable given the schedule now increases from eight SEC games to nine, and the FSU matchup is on the road. That’s all while failing to improve the talent on the roster, as Florida was among the bottom of the SEC in its transfer class. Usually, new head coaches add highly touted transfers. Sumrall failed to.
The Gators, who went winless on the road last season, have to play at Auburn, Missouri, Texas, Kentucky and FSU, and the matchup against Georgia is in Atlanta. They’ll also be a home underdog to Ole Miss and Oklahoma, leaving their best chances at SEC wins as the games they host South Carolina and Vanderbilt. It’s not out of the question to say that the Vandy game could be the only time the Gators are favored in SEC play, but even if we give them the South Carolina game, that’s a team that’s only favored in five games.
This feels more like a 6-6 team to me, with seven wins being a pretty big win for Sumrall in his first season in the SEC. Counting on this team to double up from four wins to eight without infusing much new talent is a massive and unrealistic ask. As of August 16, about 60% of the tickets at DraftKings are on Florida to go over the win total. However, the money is balanced at just about 50/50, indicating slightly larger wagers on the under. I’m backing the Florida Gators to go UNDER 7.5 wins for the 2026 college football season.
Win Total Pick: Florida UNDER 7.5 (-150)
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