Last night, the Houston Astros padded the AL West lead by a little bit with a comeback victory over the Seattle Mariners in extra innings thanks to a Christian Walker walk-off. Tonight, these divisional foes square off once more with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Daikin Park.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Mariners vs. Astros game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Astros prediction, preview
The Mariners’ slide continues since the All-Star break, dropping to just 9-17 since the season resumed back in mid-July. Now, they’re just 57-66 with a -29 run differential, putting a margin of six games between themselves and the AL West lead, with a 3.5-game gap separating them from a Wild Card berth. However, the Astros are headed in a better direction and improved their record since the break to 16-9 with last night’s win, now holding a three-game lead over second pace for the division. The record reads 63-60 on the year, although a run differential of -24 isn’t ideal.
Seattle sends out one of its top arms tonight, RHP Emerson Hancock (6-7). The 27-year-od is amidst a career-best campaign with a 3.35 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 111 strikeouts over 121.0 IP. That means a 22.7% K%, but an excellent 6.1% BB% keeps runners off the basepaths and his pitching run value sits in the 92nd percentile, per Baseball Savant. The Mariners’ relief staff ranks 13th in ERA at 3.95 with a 1.32 WHIP and a 14.4% K-BB%.
For Houston, RHP Hayden Wesneski (2-0) looks to keep his young season rolling. After making his return from Tommy John surgery, he’s thrown just 18.2 IP but has a 3.86 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP across three games. He’s struck out just 12 hitters but has an 8.0% BB% and a chase rate of 36.0%. Still, the sample size remains small. The club’s bullpen also sits 11th in ERA at 3.93 with a 1.27 WHIP and a 13.9% K-BB%.
There’s a sizable difference between these teams’ bats, though. The Astros generally have no problems putting up runs at seventh in OPS (.732) – they use power to produce, ranking seventh in ISO (.168), fourth in HR (164), and sixth in total wRC+. They’ll be glad to face a right-hander as well, given a .743 OPS via a slash line of .248/.323/.420. The Mariners’ offense has never truly hit its own stride in similar fashion, falling just 28th in OPS (.683). The club also slots in at 25th in ISO (.147), 16th in HR (142) and 16th in wRC+. Right-handers provide the better of their own splits, but the slash line still reads .233/.312/.389 with an OPS of .701.
Mariners vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as a -119 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, while the Mariners enter as +111 underdogs to win on the road. The run total is set at a healthy 8.5 between these clubs.
Yesterday, we saw plenty of offense as these teams combined for 17 runs on 24 hits in the 10-7 victory for Houston. It was an atypical showing for Seattle, which put up 12 knocks and really outperformed its usual run creation since the All-Star break – with just 84 runs in 26 games, the M’s are averaging just 3.23 per game with a .657 OPS. Those marks fall second-to-last and 25th among the entire MLB.
Wesneski isn’t unhittable by any means, but he has looked super solid since making his return with a workload that keeps scaling upwards with each passing game. More importantly, he’s allowed just three or fewer earned runs in all three outings. Hancock has been a little bit shakier in recent starts, also keeping earned runs down to three or fewer across his last eight tries since late June, but he’s also conceded at least eight hits over each of his last three starts. The Astros may be able to take advantage of that here, so instead of taking a game line, I’m instead targeting over 5.5 hits allowed for Hancock at +107 odds here. Given his form and the Stros’ split against righties, I feel good about this one.
