With first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Minnesota Twins. This is the second game of the series between these two teams, but the first to take place in Minnesota. These two teams played in the Field of Dreams exhibition, which resulted in a 7-1 Phillies victory. This marked the first matchup between these two teams this season.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Phillies enter as narrow -124 favorites and hold +128 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Twins hold +116 odds to win outright, with the run total set at eight.
Phillies at Twins prediction, preview
It has been a turbulent season for the Philadelphia Phillies with some significant ups and downs. They limped to a 9-19 start before finally playing to their talent level after the firing of Rob Thomson, playing themselves back into the postseason picture. Now, they’ve lost some recent footing. The Phillies enter tonight with a 65-58 record on the season and are currently tied for the final Wild Card seed in the National League. On the season overall, Philadelphia has gone 48-75 to the run line, and the run total is 53-62-8 to the over/under.
Jesus Luzardo will be on the mound for the Phillies today for his 25th start of the year. The All-Star left-hander is posting a 10-5 record, a 3.32 ERA, a 1.142 WHIP, and 176 strikeouts across his 143.2 innings pitched. Luzardo has been especially impressive of late with two or fewer earned runs allowed in 14 of his past 16 games and a 2.25 ERA across this stretch. He has only faced off against this Twins lineup in 25 at-bats in his career, with nine strikeouts tallied and six hits allowed across this stretch.
The Phillies are slashing a collective .238/.309/.401 with a .709 OPS. They rank 21st in the league in hits, 16th in total runs, ninth in home runs, and have struck out the 10th-most times. Trea Turner leads the team with 121 hits on the season, along with 17 home runs and 47 RBI. Brandon Marsh adds 119 hits plus 17 home runs and 54 RBI, while Bryce Harper contributes 109 hits, 25 home runs and a team-high 72 RBI. Kyle Schwarber is the lone other player with 100+ hits and leads the MLB with 37 home runs on the year. Luis Arraez has provided a nice stylistic contrast in their lineup and was their biggest addition at the trade deadline, while Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto also play key roles.
The Minnesota Twins enter with a 60-63 record on the season and are currently a half-game out of the final Wild Card seed in the American League. They enter this matchup having lost eight of their past 12, so they are looking to get back on track now. Minnesota has gone 66-57 to the run line, and the run total is 64-51-8 to the over/under.
Rookie pitcher Connor Prielipp will be making his 17th start of the season for the Twins. The 25-year-old enters with a 3-5 record, a 4.79 ERA, and a 1.319 WHIP. Prielipp has tallied 88 strikeouts while allowing 77 hits and 11 home runs across his 82.2 innings pitched. Prielipp has allowed three or more earned runs in five of his past seven starts, and has thrown between 4.0 and 6.0 innings in every start this year. This will be his first matchup against this Phillies lineup.
At the plate, the Twins are slashing a collective .245/.319/.406 with a .725 OPS. Minnesota ranks 10th in the league in hits, ninth in total runs, 15th in home runs, and 19th in strikeouts. Josh Bell leads the team with 110 hits, along with 16 home runs and 72 RBI. Brooks Lee adds 106 hits of his own, with 17 home runs and 62 RBI, while Luke Keaschall is the lone other player to log over 100 hits. Byron Buxton leads the team with 25 home runs on the season, while Kody Clemens is in the midst of a breakout season with 20 homers and 56 RBI of his own. Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, and Austin Martin also play key roles.
Phillies at Twins pick, best bet
The Phillies opened the series with a 7-1 win over this Twins team in which the bats finally showed some life. But Philadelphia will be back focused on putting the ball into the bleachers instead of the cornfields as normal MLB action resumes. Even still, the blueprint for how this team is supposed to function was shown, with a strong pitching performance and a few home runs to break things open.
This is a matchup in which Philadelphia can lean on the same blueprint. Jesus Luzardo has been the Phillies’ best pitcher of late, with Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez showing some signs of fatigue while Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter have been erratic on the overall sample of the full season. Luzardo allowed 28 hits and 21 total runs across his first four outings before settling in on the year. Since this point, the left-hander is posting a 2.45 ERA, and the Phillies are 15-5 in these matchups. When he is at his best, Luzardo has some of the best put-away stuff in baseball, and this is a Twins team that has been quiet at the plate of late.
In contrast, rookie Connor Prielipp is trending in the opposite direction as the season has progressed. He posted a 2.88 ERA across his first five starts at the MLB level, but this number has ballooned to a 5.62 ERA since. The Twins are 5-6 in their past 11 games that Prielipp took the mound, and they have lost eight of their last 12 games overall. Prielipp has allowed three or more earned runs in back-to-back games and in eight of his last 11.
It is to be determined if the spark of life at the plate the Phillies showed in the previous game will carry over. But this is a favorable matchup for them to build off, and Luzardo’s production provides a high floor for the outlook to get the win. Prielipp is posting inverted splits against opposing hitters, and the Phillies have plenty of intimidating left-handed bats to capitalize on this. Expect Philadelphia to respond with the newfound pressure of slipping out of the postseason picture and play with urgency tonight. Count on some of the offensive production to carry over from the previous game and for Luzardo to put the Phillies in the driver’s seat to produce.
Best bet: Phillies Moneyline (-124)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
