WNBA playoff continues on Saturday. The New York Liberty continue their brutal battle for playoff positioning on Saturday; with a win, they could rise as high as fifth in the standings, but a loss could tumble them to eighth. The Connecticut Sun don’t pose the biggest threat, but have talent to be reckoned with. Can the Liberty get a crucial win to advance their playoff standing?
The Liberty enter as 7.5-point road favorites with -325 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun are +260 underdogs, with the game total set at 173.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Liberty-Sun matchup.
Liberty vs. Sun Prediction, Preview
So far, the New York Liberty have owned this matchup. They destroyed Connecticut 106-75 in the season opener, behind 31 points and 10 rebounds from Breanna Stewart. Exactly one month later, during Commissioner’s Cup play, New York reeled off an 89-80 win led by—you guessed it—Stewart.
This time around, things have changed for these two teams. New York didn’t have Sabrina Ionescu in those first two matchups as she worked through a back injury; now, the All-Star is in the lineup and back in form. They also had Satou Sabally around for the second matchup, but the talented forward has stepped away from the team while dealing with concussion complications. On Connecticut’s side of the aisle, Aneesah Morrow is now a member of the Toronto Tempo after playing a key role in the first two matchups. It’s also possible they’ll have to go through this matchup without Aaliyah Edwards and Brittney Griner, who are both listed as questionable due to leg injuries.
For the Liberty, the key is to continue applying offensive pressure. Connecticut has the worst offense in the league, and if New York can even get a C+ offensive performance from their stars, that should be enough. Not that anybody does, but Connecticut in particular has had no answer for Stewart, which gives the Liberty a significant edge. If Jonquel Jones can go to work in the post and Ionescu can get her driving game in order, it will be a long night for the Sun.
For the Sun to pull off the upset, the offense has to pop. Leïla Lacan has been a consistent driver and playmaker, but others need to step up, especially if Griner is out. Kennedy Burke, Diamond Miller, and Olivia Nelson-Ododa are three key contributors who could pressure the New York defense at a high level in the right context. But that’s a big if, especially with New York’s elite defensive frontcourt.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who will pull out the win, and how should we bet on this game?
Liberty vs. Sun Pick, Best Bet
It’s hard to see a way through for the Sun. Their offense has struggled to keep pace all season, and injury concerns loom large. New York has weathered absences all season long; Sabally and Leonie Fiebich are both important contributors when healthy, but they’ve made do without them often. This veteran New York squad will look at the standings and see the potential to avoid the gauntlet the lower seeds will have to face. I expect them to come out swinging and not look back for the road win.
