Everyone loves a good, old-fashioned home run. There’s nothing quite like watching the baseball soar into the bleachers, and there’s plenty of betting value to be had in the homer market if you’re looking for some longer-shot plays.
Today, we’re looking towards the full MLB schedule for our top homer picks on Saturday’s slate. Let’s break it down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers | +378 | Michael Lorenzen is on the mound for the opposing Rockies at Oracle Park, and while his stats are somewhat inflated, he’s still allowed a .491 slugging percentage in road games with nine homers conceded in those. Devers is one of the best power hitters on the Giants’ roster with 93rd-percentile average exit velo, which should play well against an arm whose Sabermetrics are far below average. |
| Bryce Harper | +496 | Harper has a slugging percentage of .498 with 25 homers this season and is slugging .561 in August with three dingers in 60 ABs. He’s on fire right now and gets a date against an opposing starter allowing high average exit velocity, as well as a weak Minnesota bullpen. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Rafael Devers 1+ Home Run (+378)
The Giants take on the Rockies at Oracle Park today, which certainly isn’t the most hitter-friendly venue in the MLB. However, RHP Michael Lorenzen takes the mound for the visitors with a way-high 6.83 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP. He has a fourth-percentile average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, while his barrel rate allowed comes in at the 21st percentile. We want a San Francisco hitter here, which is why we’re looking toward Rafael Devers. He has 24 dingers to his name this year and is slugging .467 with a 93rd-percentile average exit velo and hard-hit rate. This is exactly the kind of hitter we want against Lorenzen – especially since the hurler has served up 13 of his 18 homers allowed to lefties like Devers. Even though 11 starts at Coors Field inflate the arm’s numbers some, he still has a 5.09 ERA with a .491 slugging percentage against, also giving up nine homers on the road. Target Devers and don’t think twice.
Bryce Harper 1+ Home Run (+496)
It’s been an awesome August for Bryce Harper, who has a .268/.500/.561 slash line for a 1.061 OPS across 60 ABs this month. That includes three home runs, bringing his season-long tally to 25 now. It’s been five games since the star put another one over the fence, so it’s beginning to feel like his next blast could be right around the corner, too. What we like about the profile is above-average grades in average exit velo, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and sweet-shot percentage, and a .502 xSLG mark means he’s basically producing as expected. Harper does struggle to drive the ball a bit against lefties with a .312 slugging percentage in the split, but opposing LHP Connor Prielipp has an average exit velo allowed of 90.5 mph that falls in the 10th percentile, also amassing a 30th-percentile barrel rate. He allowed three homers across his last two starts, too. The Twins’ bullpen has its fair share of issues, so I like Harper to record a homer here.
