Closing down tonight’s three-game WNBA slate, the Minnesota Lynx will take on the Las Vegas Aces.
This is the third and final matchup of the regular season between these two WNBA title threats. The Aces picked up a 100-97 win in the first matchup on June 13th. Minnesota got back on track in the most recent matchup, producing a 98-87 victory a week ago on August 8th.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Lynx enter as 2.5-point favorites and hold -135 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Aces hold +114 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 182.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Lynx at Aces matchup.
Lynx at Aces Preview
The Minnesota Lynx sit at the top of the WNBA standings with a 28-7 record on the year. They enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak and have won 13 of their past 14. On the season, Minnesota has gone 20-15 against the spread, and the game total is 21-14 to the over/under.
Olivia Miles has stepped up into the forefront of the production for the Lynx, posting averages of 19.8 points, 6.1 assists, and 4.7 rebounds across her rookie season. This has largely come while Napheesa Collier has been sidelined from her offseason ankle surgeries. The five-time All-Star and back-to-back MVP runner-up made her return just before the All-Star break and is posting averages of 19.1 points and 7.5 rebounds across her eight games played. Kayla McBride contributes 18.4 points and 3.2 rebounds, while shooting 42.4% from beyond the three-point arc, while Natasha Howard adds 15.2 points and 7.7 rebounds per game of her own. Courtney Williams is the lone other player averaging double figures with 14.7 points and 5.2 rebounds, while Nia Coffey and Maya Caldwell also play key roles.
The Lynx rank second in the WNBA in scoring at 92.6 points per game. Minnesota also ranks second in offensive rating, third in field goal percentage, and second in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 83.7 points per game against the Lynx, the third-lowest mark in the league. They also rank third in defensive rating, third in opponent field goal percentage, and third in opponent three-point percentage.
The Las Vegas Aces enter with a 24-11 record, which slots them in third place in the WNBA. They are coming off back-to-back wins, and have won six of their past nine. On the season, the Aces have gone 19-16 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 19 of their 35 games played.
Four-time MVP A’ja Wilson headlines the production, averaging 25.9 points and 9.7 rebounds per night. Jackie Young adds 18.7 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.5 rebounds, while Chelsea Gray contributes 12.3 points and 7.0 assists of her own. NaLyssa Smith both averages double digits, while Jewell Loyd also plays a key role. Kierstan Bell, Dana Evans, and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus will each miss tonight’s matchup. Justine Pissott is the lone other name on the injury report and is questionable due to a right leg injury.
Becky Hammon’s squad is scoring 90.7 points per game, which ranks third in the WNBA. The Aces also rank fourth in offensive rating, second in field-goal percentage and third in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 86.9 points per game against Las Vegas, which ranks sixth in the league. Las Vegas also ranks fifth in defensive rating, fifth in opponent field-goal percentage and 11th in opponent three-point percentage.
Lynx at Aces Pick, Best Bet
This is a heavyweight matchup between two of the most elite teams in the WNBA. With the playoffs now less than 10 games out, this is an especially noteworthy measuring stick matchup.
In the first game between these two teams, the Aces produced a 100-97 win. Las Vegas led for 98% of the matchup and extended the advantage to as many as 15 points. The stat profile was fairly similar between these two teams in the matchup as they tallied the same amount of turnovers, shot 44% and 43% from beyond the three-point arc, and the rebounding battle was 33-31. But Las Vegas was able to assert itself and hold control throughout and get the early season win.
Minnesota produced a 98-87 win in the most recent matchup, one in which the Lynx held control throughout. They extended the lead to as many as 14 and held control for 87% of the matchup. The Lynx shot 15-for-29 (52%) from beyond the three-point arc and also shot six percentage points better than the Aces from the field.
It was extremely impressive to see the Lynx remain in the contending mix while Napheesa Collier was sidelined. Second-overall pick Olivia Miles blossomed into a star in her absence, and the two have found a way to get on the same page at a rapid rate. There was some concern this was a difficult transition to make midseason, but the two have a convincing case for the best duo in the WNBA even while spending such a short amount of time together.
Expect this one-two punch to be a bit too much for the Aces in this matchup. Even as great as A’ja Wilson is, the rest of the Minnesota roster and the way the pieces fit together is a bit more trustworthy. The Lynx also have a bit of a rest advantage, with two games since they last faced off and Wednesday being their last matchup. In contrast, the Aces have played three games since these two teams’ meeting a week ago, and last took the floor on Thursday.
In addition, the Lynx have done a nice job raising their level against strong opponents. They have covered the spread in each of their last six games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record. In contrast, the Aces have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine matchups with the Lynx when they have held a winning record. Minnesota is also 20-15 against the spread overall, 10-6 when playing on the road, and 6-4 with a rest advantage. Expect the Lynx to approach this matchup with the necessary level of intensity and for the dynamic combo of Collier and Miles to be too much. Count on Minnesota providing a reminder to Las Vegas for why they remain at the top of the standings – don’t blink at the narrow spread tonight.
