The top two teams in the National League go head-to-head again on Saturday as their four-game series continues. Last night, the Los Angeles Dodgers fought back with a 3-1 win over the Milwaukee Brewers, evening this series after the Brew Crew took game one on Thursday. To make things even better, one of the top young arms in the MLB takes the mound tonight as well. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET tonight.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Brewers vs. Dodgers game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
The Brewers maintain the MLB’s top record by a very slim margin at 75-48, and the run differential of +129 is better than all but one other club. However, they’d dropped three straight games earlier in the week and have lost four of their last five, though they remain 16-11 since the All-Star break. The only group with a higher run differential? That would be tonight’s opponent. The Dodgers are only 13-13 since the break, but the overall record of 74-49 looks much better and the differential is +143. This is a true clash of titans.
Milwaukee starts RHP Jacob Misiorowski (11-5), who’s in the midst of an incredible campaign. He has an awe-inspiring 1.76 ERA with an 0.74 WHIP, but the most impressive part are the 204 strikeouts he’s racked up across 133.0 IP. The 24-year-old fireballer has a staggering 40.6% K%, also keeping the BB% down at 6.0%. His Baseball Savant page is almost entirely red, grading out in the 80th percentile or better in practically every metric except for ground-ball rate. If that’s not enough, the Brewers’ bullpen ranks fourth in the MLB with a 3.50 ERA, plus a 1.25 WHIP and a 14.4% K-BB%.
While not the same caliber of superstar, LHP Justin Wrobleski (11-4) gets the start for Los Angeles. He’s pitched well this year, amassing a 3.44 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP. However, his strikeout tally sits at just 94 in 120.1 IP, only 19.1% on the K%. Still, a 5.5% BB% is elite and he’s largely delivered very positive results despite a couple of poor outings in August thus far. The Dodgers’ relievers are 15th in ERA with a 4.00 mark, while they also hold a 1.28 WHIP and a 14.3% K-BB%.
This game does pit high-output offenses against each other, though. Los Angeles has the second-best OPS in baseball at .766 and holds an identical ranking in total wRC+. The Dodgers pace the sport in wOBA at .334 but are also fifth in ISO (.169) with the seventh-most home runs (158). Beyond that, they have excellent plate approach with an 0.48 BB/K ratio. That’s a trend they share with the Brewers, who lead the sport with a .50 BB/K ratio while also ranking ninth in OPS (.729), seventh in wOBA (.322) and 11th in wRC+. The power upside isn’t there, though, tumbling all the way to 26th in ISO (.142) with the fewest moonshots of any club (111 HR).
Brewers vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Brewers as a -119 Moneyline favorite on the road this evening, while the Dodgers enter as +111 underdogs to win at their own ballpark. The run total is set at just seven combined trips across the plate.
It’s worth noting that neither offense has been spectacular since the All-Star break. Both are averaging just a smidge over 4.0 runs per game, down a significant margin from season-long averages in the range of 5.0 and beyond. The Dodgers’ OPS since the break is still a respectable .724, but their OBP has dropped to .312 and the lineup has been a bit less consistent, for what it’s worth. Likewise, the Brewers’ OPS over this span is .705, and while they’re still reaching base with a .331 OBP, the bats have cooled off some overall while the K% has spiked to 24.0% (which is high for this lineup).
The arms on the mound are both excellent to varying degrees, but where Misiorowski has a major advantage in talent, Milwaukee’s lineup slashes just .237/.326/.363 with a .689 OPS against southpaws. Granted, the Brewers’ batters have slashed .346/.414/.615 against Wrobleski in a small sample of 26 ABs, so perhaps things land somewhere in the middle today in terms of production. With that said, I’d still rather buy the poor lefty split and Misiorowski’s dominance, leading me to the under on seven runs here.
