The Commanders are hosting the Dolphins on Friday for an NFL preseason matchup. Miami is favored by 3.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 35.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Commanders vs. Dolphins Preview
The Commanders and Dolphins both are coming off frustrating seasons. Washington finished 5-12 and missed the playoffs for the fourth time in the last five years. Meanwhile, Miami finished 7-10 and missed the postseason for the second year in a row.
These squads had similar results on both sides of the ball. The Commanders and Dolphins ranked 12th and 14th in yards per play, respectively, and both finished in the bottom-seven yards per play allowed. Dan Quinn remains the Commanders’ HC, while the Dolphins moved on from Mike McDaniel and hired Jeff Hafley, who was the Packers’ DC last season.
The Commanders and Dolphins went head-to-head in Week 11 last season, and Miami defeated Washington, 16-13, in an overtime thriller. Jayden Daniels missed this matchup with a dislocated elbow, and the quarterback only played in seven games last season, which was part of the Commanders’ downfall.
Daniels also wasn’t overly effective when he played, averaging 6.7 yards per attempt (YPA) and leading the team to a 2-5 record in his starts. Heading into this season healthy, though, there are hopes Daniels can return to the stellar form we saw from him during his rookie campaign in 2024. That year, Daniels threw for 25 touchdowns, nine interceptions and 3,568 yards. Furthermore, he rushed for six touchdowns and 891 yards. The quarterback won Offensive Rookie of the Year and, most importantly, led Washington to a 12-5 record and to the divisional round of the playoffs.
Daniels, playing like one of the best two-way quarterbacks in the NFL again, would make the Commanders a legitimate threat in the NFC. He’s reportedly had a strong training camp thus far. However, it’s unclear whether he will play in this preseason opener against the Dolphins, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he didn’t suit up. If Daniels does see some series, Washington will have a clear edge. Even if he’s out, behind him is veteran Marcus Mariota. The quarterback went just 2-6 in his starts last season, but he averaged a solid 7.5 YPA, so Mariota is a capable player who could do some damage in a preseason setting.
While Washington’s core remains mostly intact this season, the Dolphins look very different with Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill all out of the picture. Taking over at quarterback is ex-Packer Malik Willis, who inked a three-year, $67.5 million deal with Miami this offseason. Willis was viewed as one of the best backups in the NFL, averaging 8.5 YPA and going 3-3 in his starts in his first four seasons in the NFL. Willis can also get it done as a rusher, averaging 5.5 yards per carry (YPC).
While the Dolphins signed Willis to a big contract to replace Tagovailoa, they didn’t make that type of splash to fill the void left behind by Hill and Waddle. Miami brought in veterans Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell and Jalen Reagor, and they drafted Caleb Douglas in the third round out of Texas Tech. The wideout topped 800 yards and scored six-plus touchdowns in his final two seasons in college, and he’s been getting some high praise during training camp.
Douglas has a real chance to become Willis’ main target quickly. We might get a glimpse of their chemistry in this preseason matchup against the Commanders, as Hafley told the media Wednesday that Willis will play some, meaning most of the starters should see some work.
Commanders vs. Dolphins best bet
With Willis likely to play and Daniels’ status still up in the air, the Dolphins deserve to be the favorite. But being favored by 3.5 points feels aggressive, given the volatile nature of the preseason.
Mariota is a well-experienced quarterback who can put up some points if Daniels is out, and Washington +3.5 seems like the smart play here.
