The AL West is unpredictable at best and outright wild at worst this season. The Houston Astros have held onto the lead for the last week-plus and are at the top by a two-game margin after finding their form recently. The Seattle Mariners had very high expectations, but have underperformed in a big way as they continue to try and get back to the .500 mark. Tonight, these teams kick off a new series at Daikin Park
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Mariners vs. Astros game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Astros prediction, preview
The Mariners were supposed to be a potential threat for the World Series. Instead, they’re 57-65 with a -26 run differential with five games between them and the top of the division. Since the All-Star break, they’re just 9-16 as well. The Astros are headed in the opposite direction, going 15-9 since the break to take over the top spot. They’re now 62-60 on the year, though the run differential is still rough at -27.
RHP George Kirby (8-9) is the starter for Seattle, bringing a 3.68 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP to tonight’s contest. He’s struck out 112 hitters over 132.0 IP as well, a 20.6% K%, but his BB% is elite at just 5.2%. His chase rate and fastball velocity are both up as well, ranking in the 86th and 84th percentile. The Mariners’ relief staff is 12th in ERA at 3.91 with a 1.33 WHIP and a 14.2% K-BB%.
RHP Peter Lambert (8-6) starts for Houston tonight, carrying a 3.09 ERA and 1.15 WHIP into this one. He’s also struck out 111 hitters for a 23.5% K%, though a 9.3% BB% is less than spectacular. The club’s bullpen sits 11th in ERA at 3.90 with a 1.26 WHIP and a 13.9% K-BB%.
The Astros’ bats are far superior this year. They’re eighth in OPS (.730), seventh in ISO (.168), fourth in HR (162), and fifth in total wRC+. They also are better against right-handed pitching, amassing a .741 OPS on a slash line of .247/.322/.419. The Mariners don’t have the same kind of production at 28th in OPS (.682), 25th in ISO (.147), 16th in HR (142) and 16th in wRC+. They slash just .233/.311/.388 against right-handers with a .700 OPS.
Mariners vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as a -114 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, while the Mariners enter as +106 underdogs to win on the road. The run total is set at eight.
There are two quality pitchers on the bump tonight, making for an intriguing duel. Kirby has been very solid against the Astros in the past, allowing a .256/.277/.302 line against hitters on this Houston roster. He’s also allowed just one earned run over 12.0 innings in August so far, so while his strikeouts are way down, he’s getting the job done very effectively. Lambert faced off against Seattle once earlier this season, going 7.0 innings with three earned runs allowed on six hits, a walk, and a homer with six strikeouts.
We’ve seen both arms be effective time and again this year, and the bullpens are quite solid as well. Given that, as well as the fact that the Mariners have an OPS of .649 since the All-Star break with the second-fewest runs scored of any club in this span (77), the under on eight runs jumps out to me on the betting card. We could certainly get a pitcher’s duel here in Houston.
