When we look at the end of the regular season, you won’t be seeing the Portland Fire or the Seattle Storm in the playoff picture. Though the Fire are the ninth seed, they’re six games back with 11 games left to play, and I’m comfortable ruling them out. Seattle has a steady lead for the worst record in the WNBA, but with this Pacific Northwest rivalry on the rise, you can bet they’ll get up for this game.
The Storm enter as 3.5-point home favorites with -155 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fire are +130 underdogs, with the game total set at 179.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Fire-Storm matchup.
Fire vs. Storm Prediction, Preview
So far, the Portland Fire have thoroughly owned this matchup. On June 17, Portland won the first-ever matchup between the two teams by 94-89. Two weeks later, they pulled it off again, winning 77-72. Last week, the third blow was delivered, as Portland took home a 100-93 victory. With the Storm reeling to the finish line, it would be devastating to lose all four games to their new PNW rivals.
Seattle has struggled to contain Portland’s stars in these three matchups. The Fire have gotten four 20-plus point performances from Carla Leite and Bridget Carleton in those six matchups, including the most recent matchup, where Leite played only four minutes after suffering an injury. If Leite plays (currently listed as questionable after missing Wednesday’s game), they have to do better at stopping Portland’s top-scoring duo. It’s a lot of pressure on rookies Flau’jae Johnson and Awa Fam to defend on the perimeter.
Seattle’s offensive issue in this matchup has been nearly everyone except Dominique Malonga. The budding superstar center has scored 20-plus points in all three matchups, consistently dominating Portland’s undersized team in the paint. Natisha Hiedeman has been consistently solid, but for the rest of the team, it feels like they’re playing whack-a-mole. Jade Melbourne will knock down shots and pop on her drives, then disappear. Johnson will hand out buckets left and right, then she’ll disappear. Fam gets going, then she gets gone. Despite having some offensive success in these matchups against the Fire, it hasn’t been enough.
With or without Leite, the Fire will have to do a better job on Malonga to get a fourth straight win. That starts with Emily Engstler, their defensive Swiss Army knife; her rotations can blow up Malonga’s preferred shots. But Megan DiLeo, the de facto center, has to be better at contesting shots down low. Seattle has consistently shown that their offense will break down if Malonga isn’t dominating; take her away, and you can all but count on a win.
For Seattle, it’s about getting consistent perimeter pressure, which hasn’t been easy all year. This is not a very good Portland defense: when you get the rock, put your head down and drive to make something happen. You can’t play hesitant and afraid of mistakes against a defense that cannot consistently pressure you. Fam, Hiedeman, and Melbourne need to play with a drive-first mentality to get this done.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who will pull out the win, and how should we bet on this game?
Fire vs. Storm Pick, Best Bet
It’s still unclear whether Leite will be available Friday night, but since she’s listed as questionable and was a true game-time decision for Wednesday’s game, I think her status gives us an edge. If Leite plays, the Fire are the better team and should be favored, and yet we can get them as underdogs here. On top of that, Seattle will be without Johnson, who is important to their defensive identity and limited offense. I believe they’ve shown the Storm cannot figure out their offense, even without Sarah Ashlee Barker, and that’s enough to pick them.
