The wait is almost over for UFC 330! Saturday night in Philadelphia at Xfinity Mobile Arena, the UFC will host an event in the City of Brotherly Love for the first time in over seven years. Islam Makhachev defends his Welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry in the Main Event while Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson face off for the Women’s Strawweight Championship.
Check out my best bets and full breakdown below ahead of this week’s UFC 330 numbered event.
Best Bets for UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
- Ian Machado Garry Moneyline (+285): With Machado Garry’s physical advantages, phenomenal striking, and takedown defense, he has the perfect skill set to end Islam Makhachev’s dominant streak.
- Dern vs. Robertson Method of Victory: Decision (-150): The co-main event between Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson is a close fight, and even though both have a ton of submissions, they have often gone to the judges’ scorecards recently.
- Myktybek Orolbai to Win in Rounds 1-2 (-150): Seven of Myktybek Orolbai’s last 10 fights have come in the first two rounds. At UFC 330, Orolbai has a good matchup against Jeremiah Wells, who will likely be unable to keep up with his pace.
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry Best Bets Breakdown
Ian Machado Garry Moneyline (+285)
Islam Makhachev is the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC and became a two-division champion after beating Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322, which was his last fight. After suffering his lone loss in his second UFC fight, Makhachev has won 16 consecutive fights, tying Anderson Silva for the longest winning streak in UFC history. But now, Makhachev will defend the title against Ian Machado Garry in the Main Event of UFC 330. Coincidentally, Makhachev’s mentor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, made his first Lightweight title defense against an Irish fighter, Conor McGregor. Machado Garry has spent a lot of time training and living in Brazil, but make no mistake, he still proudly represents Ireland.
Four of Makhachev’s six title wins have come against a champion at the time. Makhachev has done a tremendous job making elite fighters look average. In UFC title fights, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev are 10-0 with seven finishes. When the lights get the brightest, both of them have elevated their game and haven’t come up short in those situations.
But Machado Garry may present problems that the champion hasn’t seen yet. Machado Garry is four inches taller (6’3″ vs. 5’10”), with a four-inch edge (74″ vs. 70″) in standing reach. Makhachev’s best skill is taking his opponents down and keeping them on the ground. But he could struggle there against Machado Garry, who has an elite 80 percent takedown defense. Although Makhachev’s striking has improved, Machado Garry is still much better on the feet. I see Machado Garry successfully defending Makhachev’s takedown attempts while getting the best of him in the striking department. Getting Machado Garry to win this fight at +285 is an excellent value play considering his potential.
Dern vs. Robertson Method of Victory: Decision (-150)
Mackenzie Dern will make her first defense of the UFC Women’s Strawweight title against Gillian Robertson. Dern won the vacant title against Virna Jandiroba at UFC 321 in October 2025. In the last two years, Dern has won three consecutive contests. Even though Robertson enters this fight with a No. 5 ranking, she is on an incredible win streak. Robertson has won five straight fights and recently beat Amanda Lemos in March.
The reigning champion is a -205 favorite with Robertson being a +170 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. Robertson is taller by one inch (5’5″ vs. 5’4″), while both fighters have the same standing reach (63″). Dern has the advantage on the feet, but Robertson is better on the ground. The champion averages 3.47 significant strikes per minute, compared to Robertson’s 2.71. Robertson lands 2.76 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 40 percent rate.
Dern and Robertson have 17 career submissions between the two of them, but haven’t tapped into that area recently. Four of Dern’s previous five and three of Robertson’s last four wins have come by decision. With that in mind, my favorite play is taking this fight to the judges’ scorecards at -150.
Myktybek Orolbai to Win in Rounds 1-2 (-150)
The first fight of the UFC 330 card is a Welterweight contest between Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai. Orolbai is 11-1 in his previous 12 fights and is currently on a three-fight winning streak. Wells got back on track in his last fight against Themba Gorimba in November 2025.
Orolbai is an elite finisher, with 13 of his 16 MMA wins coming by knockout or submission. In this fight, Orolbai’s all-around skill set is on a different level than Wells’. Orolbai lands an absurd 8.77 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 59 percent rate. Also on the feet, Orolbai averages more significant strikes per minute (2.78 vs. 2.35) while having a better striking accuracy (50% vs. 46%) than Wells.
Even though Orolbai is coming off a decision win, five of his previous six wins before that came by decision. 12 of Orolbai’s 13 finishes have come in the first two rounds. Since Orolbai is a massive -1050 favorite, my favorite play is taking him to win in Rounds 1-2 at -150. After a decision in March, Orolbai will likely be looking for an early finish in this contest.
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