The AL Central is suddenly all-the-more interesting with the Detroit Tigers nearly pulling even at the .500 mark. They’re one of the hottest clubs in baseball and now find themselves in second place in the division, trailing 2.5 games behind only the Chicago White Sox, who haven’t been great since the All-Star break. Tonight, these sides start a weekend series at Comerica Park with first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s White Sox vs. Tigers game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
White Sox vs. Tigers prediction, preview
There’s a reason the Tigers have gained so much ground in the AL Central picture lately. They’ve gone 16-9 for a top-five record in the MLB since the All-Star break and have an offense that’s scorching levels of hot. Now, they’re 60-61 with a +90 run differential on the year, surging up the standings. The White Sox, however, have lost ground after going 12-13 since the break, falling to 62-58 with a differential of +40. Now, they’re truly going to have to fight to protect the 2.5-game division lead.
LHP Sean Newcomb (1-3) is expected to come out of the bullpen today as Chicago’s opener. He’s unlikely to go more than two-to-three innings at absolute most, but he’s been quite effective in his current role this year. He has a 2.66 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 64.1 IP, striking out 60 batters. His K% and BB% are both pedestrian at 22.8% and 8.7%, but he’s limited barrels and kept exit velocities down with grades in the 70th percentile or better in each metric. As for the relief staff, the White Sox bullpen sits ninth in ERA at 3.85 with a 1.32 WHIP and an 11.6% K-BB%.
Detroit sends RHP Jackson Jobe (1-0) to the bump. He had Tommy John surgery after just 10 games last season and recently made his return to the MLB mound. He’s tossed just one game, going five full innings against the San Francisco Giants with only one hit and one walk allowed in a scoreless five-strikeout outing. It was an impressive first game back, but whether he can follow it up is tougher to tell. The Tigers’ bullpen does rank highly as well – sixth in ERA at 3.74 with a 1.30 WHIP and a 12.4% K-BB%.
The White Sox bats are of high quality, ranking 13th in club OPS at .724 and producing with plenty of pop. They’re fifth in ISO (.169) and sixth in homers (157), though the K% is a little high at 24.0%. Against right-handed pitching, they’re slashing .238/.317/.406 with a .723 OPS. However, they’ve been a little less impressive since the break, seeing the OPS drop to .694 with a lower .281 BABIP. They’re trending in the opposite direction of the Tigers, who are still on fire with a .780 OPS, a .340 wOBA, the fourth-best wRC+ and the fourth-most runs scored since the break. These bats are firing, and looking at the bigger picture, they’ve climbed to 11th in club OPS (.727) while maintaining power prowess of their own with the 10th-best ISO (.164) and 12th-most homers (146). At the moment, they’re very tough to stop, but they notably slash .233/.322/.381 with a .703 OPS against lefties.
White Sox vs. Tigers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Tigers as a -129 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, while the White Sox enter as +120 underdogs to win on the road. The run total is set at 8.5.
It’s a little bit tough to trust Jobe coming off such a long layoff, but the good news is that his velocity seemed to be intact even after Tommy John surgery. He averaged 97.9 mph on the fastball in that lone outing and generated plenty of chases as well, so perhaps he’ll be fine after all heading into this one. He’s also backed by a quality bullpen that can pick up slack if needed, and of course, the Detroit offense is firing on all cylinders with a staggering 5.8 runs per game since the break.
The first couple of innings may be a little tougher for the Tigers while they work against the southpaw Newcomb, but he won’t be in the game for very long before turning things over to the arms behind him. Between his presence in the early stages as a lefty and the possibility of another strong appearance from Jobe, I do like the under on 4.5 runs through the first five innings today at even odds of +100. It may be a close call given the ceiling of these lineups, but we haven’t seen Chicago access that upside as frequently lately. I’m willing to bank on this game seeing most of the scoring in the later stages.
