The Boston Red Sox hit a little bump in the road, but they’re right back on track now and still have the best record in the MLB since the All-Star break. As their surge upward in the standings continues, they take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in a best-of-three at PNC Park over the weekend. Game one of the series begins at 6:40 p.m. ET on Friday night.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Red Sox vs. Pirates game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Pirates prediction, preview
The Sox dropped five straight outings prior to last night’s win, which caused some momentary panic for a fanbase that’s enjoyed the best play in the MLB over the last two months or so. However, there’s still no reason to truly worry since Boston’s record remains 65-56 with a +86 run differential, also going 19-8 since the All-Star break, the sport’s best record over that span. The Pirates’ faithful may have some bad feelings given the nosedive the club has taken since then, though. They’re just 9-17 and have fallen to last place in the NL Central at 59-64, though the run differential remains +25 on the campaign.
For the Red Sox, rookie LHP Jake Bennett (7-5) draws his 14th start. He’s pitched quite well with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over his 76.2 IP, even if his strikeout rate is way low. He brings an 18.0% K% with just 55 punchouts, but makes up for it with an elite 5.2% BB% and excellent chase and barrel rates. This bullpen is also a top dog, boasting a 3.48 ERA that ranks second in the MLB along with a 1.22 WHIP and a 15.4% K-BB%.
It’s RHP Bubba Chandler (5-8) on the mound for the Pirates in this one. He carries a 4.26 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP into today’s game, striking out 103 batters over 116.1 IP. That means a 20.3% K%, but a 12.2% BB% is on the very high side. For what it’s worth, he brings great fastball velocity at an average of 98.4 mph. The relief staff has struggled throughout the year though, logging a 4.32 ERA that falls 22nd with a 1.32 WHIP, though a 14.6% K-BB% is quite solid.
Both offenses have certainly impressed this year. Boston’s OPS of .722 slots in at 14th and the club ranks 18th in ISO (.153) and 24th in HR (122). Those may not sound like fantastic numbers, but honing in on the production since the All-Star break alone, the Red Sox are first in runs scored (153) as well as third in OPS (.794) and ISO (.184). There are few hotter units in baseball, though it should be cautiously noted that the full-season sample has them at a .244/.315/.390 slash line and .706 OPS against right-handers – far lower than the .768 against lefties.
Meanwhile, the Pirates have one of the MLB’s best attacks on the full season’s sample, ranking fourth in OPS at .746 and producing the third-most runs of any club. The ISO is 15th (.156) but they’re 10th in homers (149), though a 24.2% K% is a bit elevated. The issue has been keeping that output rolling, with the OPS having cratered to .660 since the break. Moreover, Pittsburgh struggles against left-handers with a slash line of .243/.310/.380 and a .690 OPS.
Red Sox vs. Pirates pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Red Sox as a -119 Moneyline favorite on the road this evening, while the Pirates enter as +111 underdogs to win at their own ballpark. The run total is set at eight.
This is a matchup in which Sox -1.5 jumps out as a value. This is the highest-scoring offense in baseball since the break, and if you go back to June 25 (an admittedly arbitrary cutoff date, but when the club strung together a five-game winning streak that arguably began this dominant run of form), they’re second across the sport in total runs scored with a .766 OPS and a .175 ISO. Something clicked with this lineup around that time and now that they’ve snapped the five-game skid, they should pick right back up where they left off.
The Pirates are having a rough time at the moment and to top it off, they’re already not a great team at the plate against left-handed hurlers. Bennett has kept his ERA and WHIP down even without a ton of strikeout upside, and given a positive matchup, he should bounce back after allowing three-plus earned runs in each of his last four starts. It’s a perfect opportunity to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s poor form, so Boston shouldn’t have much trouble covering the run line.
