This game is a lot of things.
First and foremost, for the first time since 2022, it is a baseball game in Dyersville, Iowa. The shooting site of the legendary film Field of Dreams. A movie that definitely doesn’t make me cry every time. Stop looking at me.
However, this is also a contest between two teams that are chasing the final Wild Card spot in their respective league. The Phillies have been struggling lately are are falling off the pace, while the surprising Twins are attempting to keep up with the surging Tigers and Blue Jays. This is a very important game for the standings.
So, with all those factors in mind, let’s preview this interleague clash — which will air nationally on Netflix — and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Twins prediction, preview
We probably have to start this breakdown by talking about Aaron Nola. Remember in 2021 when the Yankees and White Sox played in Dyersville? And there were eight home runs hit in that game? Nola is really, really hoping a similar showing isn’t in store for Thursday evening. Nola has been haunted by the long ball in recent years, but it’s gone to a whole new level in 2026. Not only does the veteran RHP lead the league in home runs allowed (29), but he’s given up at least one homer in 10 of his past 11 starts. That’s translated into a putrid 5.47 ERA and 5.09 FIP, along with a 15th percentile opponent barrel rate (10.0%). The former seventh-overall pick is now 33-years-old. I think it’s safe to say he’s past his peak.
With that said, the Twins aren’t exactly a squad that’s going to blow you away with its raw power. In fact, since the All-Star break, Minnesota ranks 25th in home runs (23), 25th in ISO (.135) and 21st in wRC+ (89). Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Kody Clemens do have long ball potential, but this is not the kind of lineup that’s going to wow you at first glance. Though, to be fair, that doesn’t always guarantee results, either. The Phillies do have some legitimate stars on their roster, yet for 2026 as a whole, the club has mustered only a 92 wRC+ — the fourth-worst mark in MLB.
Things also aren’t going to get any easier for Philadelphia this evening. The Phillies will be opposed by Taj Bradley, who has had something click in his first full season in Minnesota. Now, that’s not to say Bradley is completely without flaw. His 9.9% walk rate remains a little to high for comfort, while a sixth percentile opponent hard hit rate (45.4%) is a red flag with quite a deep hue. At the same time, Bradley sports a 3.76 ERA and a 3.83 FIP across 131.2 innings. He’s touching 100 mph with his fastball and he’s striking out 26.6% of the batters he’s facing. You don’t have to squint too hard to see the outlines of an ace. Bradley was always looked at as an arm with a lot of potential in his time with the Rays. In 2026, he’s finally reaching it.
Phillies vs. Twins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-112)
A lot of this comes down to how many men are on base when Aaron Nola inevitably serves up a home run or two, but either way, I think we get there. Taj Bradley is good, but the Twins’ bullpen owns a 4.60 ERA, which ranks 26th in baseball. You can score some runs against this staff.
Strong Lean: Taj Bradley Over 1.5 Walks (-177)
Not only has Bradley walked multiple batters in 19 of his 23 starts this season (82.6%), but the Phillies lead the league in walk rate in the month of August (13.8%). It’s the perfect storm, and this is the perfect parlay piece.
