We’ve got a 10-game slate for Friday’s MLB action.
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians vs. San Diego Padres ($10,200) — Williams “only” put up 19.8 FPTS last start, pitching 5.2 innings while striking out seven and allowing two earned runs. I say only because he had gone for over 30 FPTS in four of the prior five starts, striking out double-digit batters in all five outings. The upside is obviously there. The ownership could be muted due to his most recent outing and with Chris Sale and Yoshinobu Yamamoto only a few hundred more expensive. I have issues with both of their matchups, so Williams is perfectly fine with me. San Diego is 23rd in ISO, 23rd in wOBA and 19th in wRC+.
Value
Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants ($5,500) — There are surprisingly three pitchers priced below $6k that I’d feel comfortable clicking on. Grayson Rodriguez is too hot. Robert Stock is too cold. Freeland seems juuuust right. Now, the 4.65 FIP, 13.8 K-BB% and 21 home runs allowed in 112.2 innings doesn’t make one jump with ecstasy. He is pitching in the friendly confines of Oracle Park and against a Giants team he put up 19.9 FPTS against five starts ago. San Francisco is 25th in ISO, 28th in wOBA and 28th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Freeland has also thrown over 100 pitches in each of the last two starts and put up 36.6 FPTS last week against the Royals in Coors Field.
INFIELD
Stud
Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles ($4,500) — Aranda mashes righties, slashing .299/.384/.486 with a .186 ISO and 143 wRC+. 14 of the 15 home runs hit have come off a righty. Now he gets to face Chris Bassitt, who has a 6.02 FIP and 2.5 K-BB% against lefties. All six home runs allowed have come off the bat of a lefty while the slash allowed is .328/.408/.537.
Value
Abimelec Ortiz, Washington Nationals at New York Mets ($2,300) — Ortiz was recalled on August 3. He has three home runs in 27 plate appearances with an 18.5% strikeout rate, a .385 ISO, and a .308/.333/.692 slash. The BABIP is .278, so it hasn’t been about luck. He’s smashing the ball with a 92 mph average exit velocity, a 19% barrel rate, and 76.3 mph bat speed. He and Andres Chaparro are a platoon partnership at first base, with Ortiz being on the strong side. Now he gets to face Robert Stock, who has allowed a .391/.500/.652 slash with a home run in 4.2 innings against lefties. The sample sizes are small for both but we deal with the information we have.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Daylen Lile, Washington Nationals at New York Mets ($4,200) — Lile has 15 home runs, 60 runs, 64 RBI and 12 stolen bases in 496 plate appearances. He bats mostly 4 to 6 in the batting order. Against right-handed pitching, the ISO is .208 with a 103 wRC+. The slash is .250/.296/.458 with 14 of the 15 home runs hit. As mentioned in the Ortiz section, Stock has struggled against lefties in a small sample size this season.
Value
Tyler O’Neill, Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays ($2,900) — I’m not crazy about this play because Steven Matz likely won’t pitch more than a few innings to open the game. That said, one plate appearance could be enough. Matz has a 5.84 FIP and 9.5 K-BB% against righties. 10 of the 12 home runs allowed have come off the bat of a righty. O’Neill has a .287 ISO and 137 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Eight of the 10 home runs hit have come off a lefty.
