Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s teeny tiny evening slate: Kody Clemens and Andy Pages.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kody Clemens | +380 | Aaron Nola enters the day leading MLB in long balls conceded (29). That’s translated out to a whopping 2.13 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs. As such, Clemens seems like a logical choice to back in this amazing matchup. Thanks to 92nd percentile average exit velocity (92.4), Clemens has already set a new career-high in homers in 2026 (20). |
| Andy Pages | +364 | Shane Drohan sports a 6.88 ERA over his last three starts, and it’s a span where he’s allowed opposing RHBs to slash .308/.379/.538 with a .397 wOBA. Meanwhile, Pages owns a .225 ISO and a 139 wRC+ in his 149 plate appearances against southpaws so far this season. Tonight feels like the night that he reaches the 20 home run plateau. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Kody Clemens 1+ Home Run (+380)
“If you let Aaron Nola pitch, they will hit home runs.” I think that’s the quote from the movie. Don’t look it up. The point is, Nola comes into the Field of Dreams Game tied for 46th among pitchers in innings thrown in 2026 (125.0). However, despite that lack of elite volume, Nola also enters the day leading MLB in long balls conceded (29). The 33-year-old isn’t completely cooked, but a 15th percentile opponent barrel rate has not been helping at all this season (10.0%), and the RHP’s served up at least one home run in 10 of his last 11 starts. On the Twins side, Clemens seems like the logical choice to back in his amazing matchup. Thanks to 92nd percentile average exit velocity (92.4), Clemens has already set a new career-high in homers (20). He’s left-handed, too. Nola’s given up a whopping 2.13 home runs per nine to LHBs.
Andy Pages 1+ Home Run (+364)
Pages’ home run pace has slowed significantly since April and May, yet the outfielder draws an interesting matchup with Shane Drohan on Thursday evening. Drohan has been much better as a reliever in 2026 — especially lately. The lefty sports a 6.88 ERA over his last three starts, and it’s a span where he’s allowed opposing RHBs to slash .308/.379/.538 with a .397 wOBA. Bet the bullpen is looking pretty cozy to the 27-year-old right about now. Meanwhile, Pages owns a .225 ISO and a 139 wRC+ in his 149 plate appearances against southpaws so far this season. Tonight feels like the night that he reaches the 20 home run plateau.
