A potential postseason preview is on tap this evening in Chavez Ravine. The Brewers (74-47) own baseball’s best record, thanks to elite pitching, good defense, and a deep lineup. Milwaukee will face its biggest test of the season this weekend: a four-game series in Los Angeles. The Dodgers (73-48) have looked a bit off in August, but a three-game sweep of the Royals could get the defending champs back on track. Which of these World Series contenders will come out on top tonight?
The Dodgers are favorites (-140) over the Brewers, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Milwaukee and Los Angeles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Dodgers pick, best bet today
- Dodgers ML (-140): Drohan has been reliable, but he’s a non-elite left-hander facing one of baseball’s most dangerous lineups. I’ll take my chances with LA’s bats every day of the week. As for Sasaki, he’s poised to continue his recent success against a power-starved Brewers squad.
Brewers vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
Shane Drohan will get the nod this evening for Milwaukee. It’ll be the 27-year-old’s 24th outing of the season, during which he’s emerged as a capable back-end starter. Through 93.0 innings pitched, he’s notched a 3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 93 strikeouts (9.0 K/9). There’s nothing the southpaw does exceptionally well, but there aren’t any glaring weaknesses either. He ranks within the 67th percentile among qualified starters in xERA, chase rate, whiff rate and walk rate. Interestingly enough, Drohan has pitched better on the road (3.13 ERA).
There’s road starts, and there are road starts. Thursday’s contest falls under the latter category. The Dodgers remain an absolute force at the plate, averaging the third-most runs per game (5.01) in baseball. Yes, there have been some struggles as of late. Los Angeles has scored 38 runs over its last ten matchups, 12th-worst in the league during that stretch. There’s also a chance Freddie Freeman (soreness) sits out tonight. Regardless, count this group out at your own risk. The back-to-back champs own the sport’s fifth-best OPS against left-handed pitching (.753).
It’s not as if LA is the only club coming into this one on a cold streak. Milwaukee has dropped four of its last six games, including a series sweep in San Diego. Dodgers hurler Roki Sasaki will attempt to make it four in a row tonight. The 24-year-old has struggled with consistency throughout his two-year MLB career. With that being said, he seems to have turned a corner this summer. The righty has surrendered three earned runs or less in each of his last five appearances. During that stretch, he’s handed out a combined eight walks.
If Sasaki is going to spin another gem, he’ll need to provide pinpoint accuracy. The Brewers are an unorthodox modern offense, ranking last in baseball with 111 home runs. Where this group makes its mark is plate discipline; they’ve recorded the league’s sixth-best batting average (.251) and third-best on-base percentage (.336). However, this team isn’t likely to tear the cover off of the ball. Milwaukee has the 13th-worst barrel rate (7.6%) and league-worst 8.9° launch angle. When Sasaki last faced the Brew Crew on May 23rd, he allowed two earned runs over five innings.
Best Bet: Dodgers ML (-140)
A three-game sweep of the Royals should get Los Angeles back on track. Milwaukee’s lineup, while disciplined, isn’t liable to hit many homers. That’s great news for Sasaki, who has a tendency to give up long balls (1.8 HR/9). On the other side, the Dodgers have consistently hit left-handed pitching this season. Add it all up, and the home team deserves to be favored in this one.
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