The march towards the WNBA postseason continues. The New York Liberty are in the midst of a dogfight for seeding that is destined to come down to the last day of the regular season. Thursday’s game against the lottery-bound Los Angeles Sparks will have a lot of impact on their standing. Can they wrangle the home win? Or will an upset deal a blow to their hopes for the season?
The Liberty enter as 8.5-point home favorites with -375 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sparks are +295 underdogs, with the game total set at 187.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Sparks-Liberty matchup.
Sparks vs. Liberty Prediction, Preview
So far, the teams have split their first two matchups of the season. Los Angeles took home the first meeting in June, a 98-97 victory on a Nneka Ogwumike buzzer-beater. It was an all-around performance for Los Angeles, with six different players scoring in double figures. Despite having all of their stars in the lineup, New York couldn’t keep pace, as Sabrina Ionescu limped through the game with a back injury and scored only two points.
But the Liberty got their revenge with a 113-109 victory in July. Breanna Stewart and Ionescu combined for 56 points to outpace the high-scoring Sparks. With Satou Sabally and Leonie Fiebich not playing, it was a true team effort to persist without two key contributors. Though Los Angeles once again had six different scorers in double figures, it wasn’t enough.
With no Kelsey Plum in LA, the Sparks offense is in a difficult spot. They’re extremely reliant on the Ogwumike-Dearica Hamby frontcourt to carry the offense, with Rae Burrell adding a lot of scoring as well. Veteran point guard Erica Wheeler cannot replicate the playmaking that Plum provided, and isn’t even close to the scoring, which leaves them in a tough spot. Since Los Angeles has one of the worst defenses in the league, they need tons of scoring to keep up, and it’s becoming a lot harder to find that.
New York remains shorthanded with Sabally and Fiebich out, but they have the talent to compete with anybody. That Stewart-Jonquel Jones frontcourt gives them a chance on any night, and now that Ionescu is back to her old self, the star trio can carry them far. With key contributions from players like Marine Johannes and rookie Pauline Astier, they’re a force to be reckoned with.
This matchup will come down to those frontcourts. Will Hamby and Ogwumike be able to enforce their will on the offensive end of the floor and win the rebounding battle? If the answer is no, that’s a tough prospect for Los Angeles. Those two also have to do something to prevent Stewart and Jonquel from steamrolling them offensively. Unless LA shifts the balance in the frontcourt, the road upset will be impossible.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to pull out the win, and how should we bet on this game?
Sparks vs. Liberty Pick, Best Bet
It’s difficult to see a way through for the Sparks. Though they will score in this matchup, they’re hard-pressed to stop a well-balanced Liberty attack from rolling them over. As we’ve seen in the two matchups this year, the over is a great play and gives me much more confidence than the spread. Still, I’ll mix in the Liberty moneyline for a splash of extra juice.
