The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots will face off as part of the Week 1 preseason action to kick off their 2026 NFL season.
It was a wildly successful season for the Patriots, who leaped forward from a 4-13 record in 2024 to the Super Bowl runner-up last year. It has been a turbulent offseason, and New England will look to climb this same mountain this season. The Colts also had an encouraging 2025 season, but they dropped their final seven matchups to finish 8-9 following the injury to Daniel Jones.
Looking at the odds for the preseason matchup, the Colts enter as 2.5-point favorites and hold -162 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Patriots hold +136 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 37.5 points.
Colts at Patriots prediction, pick
Indianapolis Colts preview
The Indianapolis Colts looked to be shaping into a playoff threat last year following their 8-2 start. However, the season outlook shifted when Daniel Jones suffered a torn Achilles to put a stop to his resurgent season and change the direction of the year for the team. Indianapolis was never able to find its footing at the quarterback position for the remainder of the season. Jones is expected to be ready for Week 1 of the regular season, but he will be held out of preseason for precautionary reasons.
Head coach Shane Steichen has laid out the quarterback game plan for preseason. Former fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson will get the start in the matchup, and the former starter has plenty to prove. Richardson saw action in just two games last season after starting 11 games the season prior and four as a rookie. It is telling in itself how much better the offense looked behind Jones, but injuries have been a part of the problem for the Florida product failing to hit his stride. He is still just 24 years old. Even if he has fully fallen out of favor with the Colts organization, this is an important opportunity to showcase Richardson’s skill set for other teams around the league. He will be given the chance to play the entirety of the first half in this preseason opener.
When the second half kicks off, Notre Dame product Riley Leonard will take control of the offense. The former sixth round pick recorded one start and five appearances last year, showing some encouraging flashes. Richardson and Leonard have split snaps just about evenly throughout training camp, and Steichen has said the plan is to flip the two halves for the pair of quarterbacks in the following preseason matchup.
Beyond the quarterback spot, there are some intriguing battles across the roster. The wide receiver depth chart is not set in stone behind Alec Pierce and Josh Downs. Ashton Dulin has opened some eyes in training camp, while Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has also impressed. Multiple spots across the defense are still not solidified, and the battle between the two kickers will be one to note. Both Blake Grupe and Spencer Shrader are expected to receive chances in this matchup and across the preseason.
New England Patriots preview
The New England Patriots will be eager for football to get back to the top headline surrounding them. Mike Vrabel has not committed to Drake Maye taking any snaps in this matchup, but he made it clear this could be subject to change. The MVP runner-up has more than cemented his place as the Patriots’ franchise quarterback with his success last year, and don’t expect him to see more than a few snaps in this game or likely in preseason overall.
Former Giants fan favorite Tommy DeVito is listed as second on the depth chart in New England and will split the rest of the quarterback opportunities with seventh-round rookie Behren Morton. DeVito has eight NFL starts under his belt across his two seasons in the league, while Morton spent five seasons at Texas Tech to earn his opportunity.
A.J. Brown is the headline addition in the Patriots’ passing attack, but there are plenty of other names battling for their role on the team. Romeo Doubs is settling in with his new team, second-year players Kyle Williams and Efton Chism have plenty to prove, and Mack Hollins will look to make his presence felt in preseason. The running back position is also open behind the starting duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson. Terrell Jennings and Lan Larison look to have the most to play for. A few defensive positions, with cornerback the most notable, are also worth monitoring.
Colts at Patriots best bet
We are unlikely to see either starting quarterback in this matchup, and neither head coach has had consistent preseason success. Both sides will be viewing this matchup with a much clearer priority on development and evaluation over the fight for a win or loss.
My lean is toward the Colts getting the victory and covering the 2.5-point spread. Both Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard have plenty to play for and skill sets that should shine in this type of setting. Richardson is one of the better athletes in the league at the quarterback position and has raw physical tools that are impossible to match. Leonard did not lean on his legs at the rate he did in college last season, but he still tallied two rushing scores in his limited chances, and he will not be shy to take off if the opportunity presents itself. Expect both quarterbacks to treat this matchup as an opportunity to prove themselves as a starting-caliber option, and this matchup is especially crucial for Richardson. The chaotic nature of the preseason setting should be something that plays to both players’ strengths.
But I am backing the game total to go over the 37.5-point total as my best bet. Tommy DeVito will also bring a higher level of competency that is sometimes the case in these preseason settings. Both of these teams were reliant on their offenses to score at a high rate last season for their path to success, and there has not been enough notable change defensively to change this perspective. With some reason for optimism for both offenses, expect each side to score at a high rate.
In the first preseason action we have seen this year, the Carolina Panthers secured a 33-30 victory in the Hall of Fame game in which both sides flashed some impressive offensive heights. The 37.5-point total is low based on the typical NFL values, due to the preseason setting. Expect each quarterback to put forth their best audition and for each team to score at a reliable rate, with this being a comfortable bar to clear. Count on points being added to the board at a high rate and for at least 38 combined points to be put on the board.
