The Texans are hosting the Chargers for an NFL Preseason matchup Thursday night. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston is favored by 1.5 points and this game carries a total of 36.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Texans vs. Chargers Preview
The Texans finished 12-5 last season and lost in the Divisional Round for the third year in a row. Houston was eliminated by the eventual AFC champion Patriots, 26-14. While it was the same outcome for the third straight season for the Texans, their 12 wins were the club’s most since 2012 and Houston’s defense was incredible, ranking second in yards per play allowed.
The Texans’ issues were on offense, as they ranked 25th in yards per play. C.J. Stroud had an okay season, but he struggled in the playoffs, throwing two touchdowns to six picks. Stroud, however, remains the team’s clear starter with Davis Mills as the backup, which has been the Texans’ mold for the last three years. Houston had some strong weapons in Nico Collins and Woody Marks, but Stroud’s average play under center made the Texans a very predictable offense. Now though, they’ve added David Montgomery to the fold at halfback.
Texans’ HC DeMeco Ryans told the media on Monday that a “select group of guys” will not suit up for this preseason matchup, so it’s safe to assume that Stroud, Collins and Montgomery all won’t play, and defensive standouts Danielle Hunter, Will Andersen Jr. and Derek Singley Jr. all shouldn’t see action as well.
Mills should see some work and rookie Graham Mertz should see plenty of reps behind him. Mills is a quality quarterback who went 3-0 in his starts last season, and if the veteran sees a few series, the Texans could put some points.
The Texans faced the Chargers in Los Angeles late last season in December and Houston came out on top in a nailbiter, 20-17. For the second consecutive season, the Chargers finished 11-6 and lost in the Wild Card. Just like the Texans, it was the Patriots who sent the Chargers home, 16-3.
Justin Herbert’s playoff struggles were on full display in this loss, with the quarterback throwing for just 159 yards and no touchdowns. Herbert is now 0-3 in playoff starts with an ugly 64.7 QBR. Herbert was far better in the regular season, throwing for 3,727 yards and 26 touchdowns with a 94.1 QBR, but the Chargers finished just 24th in yards per play. Similarly to the Texans, the Chargers were better on defense, ranking 12th in yards per play allowed.
Los Angeles has the makings of a strong offense with Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton and Oronde Gadsden at the helm. In hopes of making this group play to its full potential, the Chargers brought in former Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel to be the team’s new OC.
Many believe McDaniel will unlock Hebert and company, but unfortunately, we won’t get a taste of this new operation Thursday. HC Jim Harbaugh has already implied that most of the starters will not play in this game, but likely will in some following preseason contests.
Former first-round pick Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei should see most of the action at quarterback, as these two battle for the primary backup job behind Herbert.
Texans vs. Chargers best bet
Predicting what is going to happen in an NFL Preseason game is always a challenge, but with Mills in line to see some series for the Texans, I have more confidence in Houston winning this game.
Mills is a solid veteran who went 3-0 in his starts last season, throwing five touchdowns to just one pick with an 88.3 QBR in those contests.
