It’s mid-August, and the South Siders are still on top. The White Sox (62-57) remain in control of their own destiny, currently leading the American League Central. Last night, new acquisition Luis Castillo tossed seven innings of one-hit ball for Chicago en route to a victory. Now, the club will hope to clinch a series win on Thursday against the Reds (57-62). That could prove difficult against a crafty left-hander such as Cincinnati’s Andrew Abbott. What should bettors expect during this afternoon matinee?
The White Sox are favorites (-123) over the Reds; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Cincinnati and Chicago on DraftKings Sportsbook.
UPDATE: Today’s first pitch has been moved up to 1:10 PM ET/12:10 PM CT due to approaching weather.
Reds vs. White Sox pick, best bet today
- Reds vs. White Sox over 8.5 runs (-107): Abbott has been fairly fortunate this season. Matching up with a dangerous Chicago offense on the road could spell trouble for him in this one. As for the Reds, their best trait is hitting the ball hard. That’s not a bad skill to have against a soft-tossing pitcher such as Martin.
Reds vs. White Sox prediction, preview
Cincinnati is one of the league’s more forgettable teams this season. Hovering just around .500, but never above that mark, has made this group the definition of mediocre. With that being said, there’s some intriguing talent on the roster. That includes the man on the mound this afternoon, Andrew Abbott. Despite a shaky start to 2026, the southpaw has put together another quality campaign. Through 128.2 innings pitched (24 starts), he’s notched a 3.92 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 99 strikeouts (6.9 K/9). However, those numbers are masking subpar peripherals. Abbott sits below the 25th percentile in several key advanced metrics, including xERA (4.72), strikeout rate (17.8%) and walk rate (11.0%).
If there’s reason to believe in Abbott on Thursday, he’s been much better on the road (2.89 ERA). Still, the opposite can be said about this White Sox lineup. They’ve recorded the league’s tenth-best OPS against left-handed pitching at home (.742). To boot, the South Siders rank fifth in home runs (157) and 11th in walks per game (3.39). Face of the franchise Munetaka Murakami won’t be in the starting lineup this afternoon. However, seven other Chicago regulars (min. 100 plate appearances) own a wRC+ above 100. That includes All-Star Miguel Vargas (127 wRC+), a right-handed batter with a .916 OPS against southpaws this season.
For all their offensive prowess, the Sox have had some issues on the mound. Davis Martin spent most of the first half as the team’s undisputed ace. Unfortunately, the 29-year-old is beginning to fall apart. During seven appearances since July 1st, he’s on the hook for a sky-high 7.80 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Unlike Abbott, the veteran is a command specialist (2.8 BB/9). Where things get dicey is a knack for giving up quality contact. Martin sits at the tenth percentile among all starters with a 44.2% hard-hit rate. Ignoring last week’s shortened one-inning outing, the righty has allowed at least four runs in each of his previous three games.
In theory, today’s game presents a bounce back opportunity for Martin. The Reds have been abysmal at the plate, ranking 27th in runs scored (487), 30th in batting average (.227) and 24th in OPS (.701). Still, this group has managed to slug the sixth-most homers in baseball (155) this season. That ability alone gives Cincinnati a puncher’s chance, even if that all-or-nothing approach is difficult to trust. It’s worth noting that the Reds have recorded the second-highest barrel rate (9.6%) and third-highest average exit velocity (89.6 MPH) in the majors. As previously mentioned, Martin has coughed up plenty of hard-hit balls. It wouldn’t be shocking to see sluggers Elly De La Cruz or Sal Stewart crush one at Rate Field.
Best Bet: Reds vs. White Sox over 8.5 runs (-107)
The Reds aren’t an offensive juggernaut, but their ability to hit the ball hard bodes well against Martin. As for Abbott, his luck might run out vs. a Chicago lineup that performs well when facing lefties. Considering neither pitcher inspires much confidence this afternoon, the best play available is on the over.
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