Don’t look now, but after winning 10 of their past 14 games, the reigning American League Champions are only 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.
More specific to Thursday afternoon, the Blue Jays are also looking to close out a four-game sweep of the Red Sox, a club they are 9-3 against so far in 2026.
Can Toronto’s domination of this matchup continue? Let’s preview this matinee divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
If the Jays are going to continue their winning ways on Thursday, it’s likely going to mean another good performance from Max Scherzer. It’s been a nice couple of weeks for the 42-year-old. Not only did Scherzer move into 10th place all-time in strikeouts during his last start against the Phillies, but the former Cy Young Award winner has pitched to a 2.57 ERA and a 3.94 FIP in his three appearances since coming off the IL in late July. Scherzer’s numbers for 2026 as a whole remain ugly, especially the 2.75 opponent home runs per nine he’s conceding. However, Scherzer was averaging 94.2 mph with his fastball last Saturday. He touched 96 mph in the sixth inning. It’s the most alive his right arm has looked in a couple years.
Speaking of fastball velocity, Payton Tolle will be the man opposing Scherzer in this matchup, and he’s got quite the live arm, as well. Over 19 starts and 107.0 innings in 2026, Tolle’s maintained a sterling 2.79 xERA and a 28.5% strikeout rate. He’s also directly on the heels of one of the most stunning pitching showcases of the season. On August 7, Tolle took the mound at Fenway Park against the Athletics. Over the next two hours, he’d strikeout 14 of the 20 batters he faced in a lopsided 13-1 win for Boston. Ironically, that’s the Red Sox last victory, as the team comes into today’s contest riding a five-game losing streak. Maybe the presence of Tolle will be enough to end the lull.
It’s also not like Tolle will be facing the 1927 Yankees. Despite the recent run of success, Toronto still isn’t hitting the ball with much authority or scoring runs at a consistent clip. Heck, the Jays have won the first three games of this series with just a single home run to their credit — and it was a solo shot by rookie Charles McAdoo, of all people. That’s likely not a formula for success if we’re trying to prorate Toronto’s chances of making a real run at the postseason over the next six weeks. Since the All-Star break, the Jays rank 28th in ISO (.109), 28th in expected wOBA (.278) and 27th in wRC+ (82). If Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or George Springer wanted to awaken from their season-long slumber, now would be the time.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Payton Tolle 6+ Strikeouts (-132)
The Jays are known for their low-strikeout ways, but this is a young lineup all of a sudden with McAdoo, Brett Bateman and Brandon Valenzuela likely in there on Thursday. Tolle’s got at least six strikeouts in six straight starts. I think he makes it seven at the Rogers Centre.
