As the WNBA regular season draws to a close, gaps in motives become clear. The Atlanta Dream are stuck in the middle of a slugfest for playoff seeding, where a couple of losses can bump a team down to the eighth seed in a hurry. The Connecticut Sun won’t have to bother themselves with worrying about the standings for the rest of the year, but they’re running out of home games in Connecticut before relocating to Houston next season. These games will be emotional for everyone in the Connecticut organization, and especially for the fans. Can they rise to the occasion to pull off the upset over Atlanta?
The Dream enter as 9.5-point road favorites with -485 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sun are +370 underdogs, with the game total set at 174.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Dream-Sun matchup.
Dream vs. Sun Prediction, Preview
So far, these teams have faced off once this WNBA season. Atlanta put the hurt on Connecticut during Commissioner’s Cup play, winning 91-75 in early June. Along with their typical brand of strong defense, Atlanta got an exceptional performance from their All-Star backcourt tandem. Rhyne Howard poured in 36 points, while Allisha Gray had 26 of her own. The Sun had no answer for that duo. A strong 20-point, 13-rebound performance from Aneesah Morrow couldn’t put a dent in the scoreline.
Now things have changed. Morrow is a member of the Toronto Tempo after a deadline deal. The Sun continues its march towards the lottery, but there are still some promising points, beginning with Leïla Lacan. The young point guard has proven to be a two-way force, showing tremendous potential as the point guard of the future for this franchise. They’ve also built a strong defensive identity, uplifted by veterans Brittney Griner and Kennedy Burke. Alongside Lacan, Saniya Rivers and Olivia Nelson-Ododa have proven themselves to be defensive building blocks. There’s a long way to go to fix this offense, but the beginning of a team identity is forming.
Atlanta doesn’t have an identity problem. Already a strong defensive team, the squad became even better with the addition of Angel Reese. That gave them a truly elite defensive tandem between Reese and Howard. Though offense has been rocky at times, the re-integration of Brionna Jones after a long injury layoff is raising their ceiling on that end. The hope is that by the end of the regular season, the former All-Star and MIP will be completely up to speed. But they have games to win in the meantime.
Since the Dream are the big favorites here, I’m going to focus on how Connecticut can pull off the upset. It starts with the Lacan-Griner pick-and-roll duo. When Lacan drives, the Dream defense will collapse inwards. When Griner rolls, the same will happen. This is a big problem for a Connecticut team that is dead last in three-point attempts and three-point percentage. Their primary floor spacers—Kennedy Burke, Charlisse Leger-Walker, and Diamond Miller—will have to knock down some shots from the perimeter to make Atlanta think twice about selling out on Griner and Lacan.
On the defensive end, they need to be better at the point of attack. Lacan and Burke have to dial in on Howard and Gray, but they cannot forget about Jordin Canada. Atlanta’s diminutive point guard is a rim-pressure monster who creates a ton of looks for her teammates. If they let Canada get downhill and put the ball in rotation, things can get ugly in a hurry. The looming deterrence of Griner sure helps them to be aggressive, but the Sun’s guards and wings will have to take advantage of that.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to pull out the win, and how should we bet on this game?
Dream vs. Sun Pick, Best Bet
It’s going to be extremely difficult for this Sun offense to put together a consistent performance against Atlanta. With their rock-solid point-of-attack defense and rebounding prowess, much of what has brought success to the Sun is nullified. I don’t see a way they can score enough to keep up with this Dream team. They will throw some meaningful punches on the defensive end to keep this game relatively low-scoring, but it’s a rough spread to cover.
