In the 2000 NFL draft, the New England Patriots selected quarterback Tom Brady with the 199th overall pick. He became the starter a year later and engineered one of the greatest dynasties in NFL history – six Super Bowl victories and AFC East division crowns in 17 of 19 seasons!
In the 2018 NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills selected quarterback Josh Allen with the seventh overall pick. Things were rough those first two seasons, as Allen completed only 56.3% of his passes while throwing 21 interceptions and taking 66 sacks.
But the entire dynamic of the AFC East was flipped on its head prior to the 2020 season, as Brady took his talents to Tampa Bay while Allen became a true quarterback, completing 69.2% of his passes for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions while taking only 26 sacks. Buffalo finished atop the division with a 13-3 record while New England only won seven games.
“Finally!”, Bills fans exhaled. “No dynasty lasts forever and it’s our time now!” And indeed it was their time as Buffalo sat on the AFC throne for the next four seasons.
But the gods looked favorably upon the Patriots once again, as the third overall selection in the 2024 draft, quarterback Drake Maye, broke out in his second season, completing 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions while leading the Patriots to a 14-3 record and the division crown once again.
Hagler vs. Hearns. Ali vs. Frazier. Bird vs. Magic. We now have two juggernauts ready to battle for the AFC East crown. Unfortunately, the other two teams in the division will likely be punching bags for the entire league.
Let’s get the yuck out of the mouth and talk about the Miami Dolphins. New coach. New quarterback. Barren depth chart. Porous defense. This team is going to be bad and has the lowest win total at 3.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The New York Jets have an over/under at 5.5 wins, so things aren’t much better. There is some talent on the roster, though – Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. If Geno Smith stops taking sacks and throwing it to the other team, maybe, just maybe the Jets can lift off longer and higher than the Wright brothers.
Now we get to the main event.
On offense, New England was tops in EPA per dropback while Buffalo was fourth. On the ground, Buffalo was second in EPA per carry while New England was 12th. The Patriots bolstered the unit with the acquisition of AJ Brown, giving Maye a bona fide alpha receiver. That’s going to do wonders for both the passing and running games. Buffalo replaced the defensive-minded and conservative Sean McDermott with Joe Brady, last season’s offensive coordinator. Addition by subtraction. Buffalo also added to the wide receiver room with DJ Moore. He is no AJ Brown, but Moore has four 1,000-yard receiving seasons in his career.
Defensively, Buffalo was fourth in EPA per carry while New England was 19th. The pass defenses are where both units truly shined, as Buffalo was sixth in EPA per dropback while New England was eighth. Buffalo allowed the fewest passing yards and the 19 passing touchdowns were the fifth-fewest.
Now, let’s remember that Buffalo was playing a first-place schedule while New England was playing a last-place one due to finishing 4-13 in 2024. Things will be much more difficult this season. In addition, the Patriots were healthy for much of the regular season.
Buffalo is one of the most complete teams in the league and, while there is uncertainty with a new coach, Brady has the potential to raise the overall ceiling of the Bills. Bills at -136 looks to be correct.
