Interceptions, the bane of every head coach’s existence. Momentum swings. Field position is instantly flipped. Confidence is shot. Scoring opportunities are nuked. And the worst-case scenario involves a touchdown for the opposition. Throw too many, and it’s sayonara NFL career. Just ask Jameis Winston, Christian Ponder and Justin Fields.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the current favorites to lead the league in regular-season interceptions are Geno Smith at +950 and Brock Purdy at +1000. One is a journeyman while the other is a former Mr. Irrelevant who signed a five-year, $265 million contract last year. Who will be most gracious and one step closer to being out of the league? Or will a dark horse emerge?
Smith is a worthy favorite since he led the league with 17 interceptions last season. During his rookie season, he threw 21, then added another 13 the following year in 13 starts. Smith enjoys flinging it — unfortunately, too often to the other team. Last season, his INT% was 3.8%. JJ McCarthy paced the NFL at 4.9%. Like I said earlier, one step closer to being out of a job.
Smith was brilliant back in 2022, completing 69.8% of his passes while throwing for 30 touchdowns with an INT% of only 1.9%, so he’s proven that it’s not purely in his DNA like Jameis Winston to just fling it around. After not starting for six seasons, Smith looked to have matured and followed that season with a 1.8 INT%. But then things regressed in 2024 to a 2.6 INT%.
Smith was sent to Las Vegas, where things unraveled last season. The offensive line was straight offensive, as injuries struck and talent was lacking. Smith took a league-leading 55 sacks, which were mostly his fault. But the pressure, combined with the Chip Kelly- and Greg Olsen-coordinated schemes, didn’t help matters.
Smith is now back with the Jets, and many of the same issues could be in store. The offensive line is good at the tackle positions, but has question marks on the interior. Frank Reich has been out of the game for a few seasons now, but he is experienced and has had success in the past.
Here’s the thing, though. Smith was allowed to start 15 games last season. From the Raiders’ perspective, he probably provided the highest probability of securing Fernando Mendoza. Could the Jets be trying to replicate the magic to select highly in what is supposed to be a great draft for quarterbacks? If so, then Smith should lead the league in interceptions once again. That said, if things get bad, fourth-round draft pick Cade Klubnik will likely be given a run to develop and see what the Jets have in him.
I’m skeptical that Smith will get the volume needed to “win” this crown — although from what I witnessed last season, volume may not matter.
As for Purdy, he threw 10 interceptions in only nine starts last season. The INT% was 3.5%. During the first three seasons of his career, that number hovered around 2.5%. 2025 looks to be the outlier, and it’s not like Purdy is an inaccurate passer or consistently misdiagnoses defenses. He just tries to thread the needle or make plays. Now, with the acquisition of Mike Evans, Purdy is provided a weapon that should make his life a lot easier. He now has a throw-it-up-and-let-him-catch-it player — health permitting.
Looking through the rest of the candidates, it was difficult to find a player I liked at a reasonable price. Therefore, I settled on Malik Willis. A ringing endorsement!
During his rookie season, Willis started three of eight games, completed only 50.8% of his passes and threw three interceptions without a touchdown. The INT% was 4.9%. He landed in Green Bay two seasons later and played sparingly, but was markedly improved. Willis started three of 11 games, completed 78.7% of his passes and threw six touchdowns without an interception. That earned him a big contract to start for the Miami Dolphins.
This Dolphins team is projected to be bad. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the total is set at 3.5 wins. PFF has the offensive line rated as the 25th-best heading into the season; the defense will likely be one of the worst, and the Dolphins will probably be chasing points all season.
The poor offensive line isn’t great, but for a dual-threat quarterback like Willis, it’s not a death sentence. That said, Willis won’t be able to run around every play as defenses will adjust and make him prove it through the air. He looks to have developed into an adept passer, but those games that he played in were of no consequence. Defenses will be looking to sweep the leg this go-around.
The defense will likely be giving up a ton of points, which would force more dropbacks for Willis. More dropbacks equate to more opportunities for interceptions. To make matters worse, the wide receiver depth chart — featuring Jalen Tolbert, Caleb Douglas, and Malik Washington — is abhorrent.
Willis should be a great fantasy quarterback due to game scripts and volume. Barring injury, he should be out there for most of the snaps after signing a three-year, $67.5 million contract. Willis should be motivated to take chances to score, which could have him among the league leaders in interceptions when it’s all said and done.
